Category 6 Isn't Enough
Apr. 29th, 2021 09:53 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
ysabetwordsmithI have said for some time that the current hurricane scale, which has 5 categories, is insufficient and needs a Category 6. Looking at the actual numbers on the scale and in recorded storms, this turns out to be insufficient also. It doesn't need one more category, it needs TWO.
The current categories average a range of about 20, some lower, some higher. Positing a scale that uses categories of similar size would yield something like:
Category 1 = 74-95 mph (range of 22)
Category 2 = 96-110 mph (range of 15)
Category 3 = 111-129 mph (range of 19)
Category 4 = 130-156 mph (range of 27)
Category 5 = 157+ mph [new 157-176] (standard range of 20)
Category 6 = 177-196 mph
Category 7 = 197-216 mph
At that, the revised scale would just barely cover Hurricane Patricia's ominous 215 mph peak sustained wind speed. O_O That means we should be ready to activate Category 8 (217-236 mph) in the foreseeable future.
Now, the government doesn't want to panic people, or get blamed for the fact that climate change is making hurricanes a lot more violent than they used to be and also now clustering. But wouldn't it be useful to know that the official "Category 5" now contains a wider range (58) than Categories 3 and 4 combined (46)? (Some people may argue that we only need three action-based categories: Ignore It, Batten the Hatches, and Run For Your Lives.) Happily, the forecasts customarily include the actual wind speed, so you can simply adjust the scale on your own.
Of course, wind speed isn't the only thing that makes a hurricane dangerous. As mentioned, clustering means they are now more likely to come in twos or threes. Even a sideswipe by a later storm after the first storm has cracked open a city will be more devastating. Global warming seems to increase the storms that show rapid intensification, which can turn a minor storm into a major one with little warning. Rising sea levels boost storm surges. Warmer air also means that hurricanes can dump more rain. Storm surge and rainfall make even the lower categories more destructive.
Don't expect the politicians and the people they direct to give reliable interpretations. Be glad that pretty accurate weather information is available for you to analyze yourself. Here's a list of weather apps and weather websites with varying degrees of detail. For the hardcore weather nerds, you can also get raw data. Explore the parts of a text Hurricane Forecast/Advisory.
The current categories average a range of about 20, some lower, some higher. Positing a scale that uses categories of similar size would yield something like:
Category 1 = 74-95 mph (range of 22)
Category 2 = 96-110 mph (range of 15)
Category 3 = 111-129 mph (range of 19)
Category 4 = 130-156 mph (range of 27)
Category 5 = 157+ mph [new 157-176] (standard range of 20)
Category 6 = 177-196 mph
Category 7 = 197-216 mph
At that, the revised scale would just barely cover Hurricane Patricia's ominous 215 mph peak sustained wind speed. O_O That means we should be ready to activate Category 8 (217-236 mph) in the foreseeable future.
Now, the government doesn't want to panic people, or get blamed for the fact that climate change is making hurricanes a lot more violent than they used to be and also now clustering. But wouldn't it be useful to know that the official "Category 5" now contains a wider range (58) than Categories 3 and 4 combined (46)? (Some people may argue that we only need three action-based categories: Ignore It, Batten the Hatches, and Run For Your Lives.) Happily, the forecasts customarily include the actual wind speed, so you can simply adjust the scale on your own.
Of course, wind speed isn't the only thing that makes a hurricane dangerous. As mentioned, clustering means they are now more likely to come in twos or threes. Even a sideswipe by a later storm after the first storm has cracked open a city will be more devastating. Global warming seems to increase the storms that show rapid intensification, which can turn a minor storm into a major one with little warning. Rising sea levels boost storm surges. Warmer air also means that hurricanes can dump more rain. Storm surge and rainfall make even the lower categories more destructive.
Don't expect the politicians and the people they direct to give reliable interpretations. Be glad that pretty accurate weather information is available for you to analyze yourself. Here's a list of weather apps and weather websites with varying degrees of detail. For the hardcore weather nerds, you can also get raw data. Explore the parts of a text Hurricane Forecast/Advisory.
(no subject)
Date: 2021-05-02 09:32 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2021-05-02 10:05 pm (UTC)Houston had its compensations - the neighborhood we were in was pretty walkable and had a lot of good independent restaurants and things as well as a board game café two blocks from our house. It also has an amazing symphony and opera and a lot of other cool big city stuff. I don't regret the time we spent there but I don't miss Houston traffic or hurricane season and I'm glad we were able to leave when we did.
(no subject)
Date: 2021-05-02 11:27 pm (UTC)Well ...
Date: 2021-05-03 02:38 am (UTC)https://www.getbellhops.com/blog/move-to-another-state/
https://www.movebuddha.com/blog/moving-out-of-state-ultimate-guide/
https://www.moving.com/tips/your-checklist-for-moving-to-another-state/
https://www.lifestorage.com/blog/moving/how-to-move-to-a-different-state/
https://moneywise.com/life/lifestyle/americans-abandon-states
https://www.movebuddha.com/blog/get-paid-to-move/
https://withoutboxes.com/start-over/
Re: Well ...
Date: 2021-05-03 03:51 pm (UTC)Re: Well ...
Date: 2021-05-03 08:12 pm (UTC)Moving is easier if you have time to plan ahead and do it in stages, and if you have friends to help. When you get to the moving stage, let us know. Some folks might be in a position to help, even if it's just sending you gift cards for newly-local restaurants or superstores instead of showing up with a welcome box.
Re: Well ...
Date: 2021-05-03 10:26 pm (UTC)I'm starting to think I need to get out of here sooner rather than later. Our fool of a governor just signed an executive order that's going to endanger more people, because he doesn't seem to understand how the vaccine works. I was beginning to feel like I could get out a tiny bit more, but not now. I'm so glad that I got a haircut and my toes done today. This is only the third professional haircut that I got in the last year plus. And I hadn't got my toes done for well over a year. This is stupid even for the fool in the governor's mansion. I wish more people had the brains of the San Francisco community. Definitely can't live there, but they've got 70% of their population vaccinated. That's pretty close to herd immunity. We're not even close to that here. And now he's telling people just go out and trust the vaccine even though we don't have near enough people vaccinated. It's crazy.
Re: Well ...
Date: 2021-05-04 04:21 am (UTC)Re: Well ...
Date: 2021-05-05 09:31 pm (UTC)