Category 6 Isn't Enough

[ysabetwordsmith]

I have said for some time that the current hurricane scale, which has 5 categories, is insufficient and needs a Category 6. Looking at the actual numbers on the scale and in recorded storms, this turns out to be insufficient also. It doesn't need one more category, it needs TWO.


The current categories average a range of about 20, some lower, some higher. Positing a scale that uses categories of similar size would yield something like:

Category 1 = 74-95 mph (range of 22)
Category 2 = 96-110 mph (range of 15)
Category 3 = 111-129 mph (range of 19)
Category 4 = 130-156 mph (range of 27)
Category 5 = 157+ mph [new 157-176] (standard range of 20)
Category 6 = 177-196 mph
Category 7 = 197-216 mph

At that, the revised scale would just barely cover Hurricane Patricia's ominous 215 mph peak sustained wind speed. O_O That means we should be ready to activate Category 8 (217-236 mph) in the foreseeable future.

Now, the government doesn't want to panic people, or get blamed for the fact that climate change is making hurricanes a lot more violent than they used to be and also now clustering. But wouldn't it be useful to know that the official "Category 5" now contains a wider range (58) than Categories 3 and 4 combined (46)? (Some people may argue that we only need three action-based categories: Ignore It, Batten the Hatches, and Run For Your Lives.) Happily, the forecasts customarily include the actual wind speed, so you can simply adjust the scale on your own.

Of course, wind speed isn't the only thing that makes a hurricane dangerous. As mentioned, clustering means they are now more likely to come in twos or threes. Even a sideswipe by a later storm after the first storm has cracked open a city will be more devastating. Global warming seems to increase the storms that show rapid intensification, which can turn a minor storm into a major one with little warning. Rising sea levels boost storm surges. Warmer air also means that hurricanes can dump more rain. Storm surge and rainfall make even the lower categories more destructive.

Don't expect the politicians and the people they direct to give reliable interpretations. Be glad that pretty accurate weather information is available for you to analyze yourself. Here's a list of weather apps and weather websites with varying degrees of detail. For the hardcore weather nerds, you can also get raw data. Explore the parts of a text Hurricane Forecast/Advisory.

Comments

[(Anonymous)]

You're welcome.

Another thought: I have heard that the panhandle part of FL is more stable than the peninsula part; I actually know people who chose (when moving to FL) to go to the northernmost parts where all the hurricane evacuees go. (I have suggested they not buy any more property...)

If a cross-country move is not currently feaseable, a northward move might be a slight improvement?

I don't know the specifics of your situation: resources, limitations, other long-term goals etc, so you have to decide for you, but I thought I'd mention it.

Well ...

[ysabetwordsmith]

Almost all of Florida is high risk, except the westernmost tip of the panhandle is moderate risk. Much of the east coast of Florida and beyond it has the highest risk. Parts of Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi have moderate risk, and north of that, none.

Re: Well ...

[(Anonymous)]

The further north-and-inland the safer you are. Hopefully even a bit more distance will dull a storm/flood a bit.

Re: Well ...

[ysabetwordsmith]

That is true. The southern end of Florida is basically a big sponge. Partway up, the center gets more solid, although that won't keep it above water forever. It is better for the time being.

[siberian_skys]

I live in the north central part where evacuees go. Good news is that I'm too far away from storm surge, but can still get high winds, flooding and tornadoes. Fortunately, I'm not currently in a flood plane. The last big hurricane took out a lot of power. We had power at the house, thankfully, but the stop and go lights were out for days and we were on a generator at work. Most of the houses around where I worked had no power for two weeks. I felt guilty for having power at home.

[(Anonymous)]

If it happens again, and you are so inclined, you could offer to let folks charge phones and medical devices.

Or let people you know well enough heat soup in your kitchen...

Well, assuming your neighbors aren't jerks, anyway.

[siberian_skys]

I worked an hour from where I lived, so unfortunately that wouldn't have helped in that case, but if it had happened with the neighbors we would have. We know the neighbors on each side and some down the street and around the corner. My co-workers who worked closer to work could at least take advantage of the plugs at work. It was awful at work. So many people without power. The energy company in that town should have been ashamed of itself. They have a reputation for being a joke. That's the other thing I want to try to look in before I move--where the power comes from.

Yes ...

[ysabetwordsmith]

Also look for options that you can install yourself: solar panels, a generator, geothermal heat, a windmill, etc. Some places have perk programs for these. The more independent you can be, the better.

https://www.energy.gov/eere/femp/renewable-energy-maps-and-tools

https://www.eia.gov/state/maps.php

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/renewable-sources/incentives.php

https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/services/incentives-and-financing-energy-efficient-homes

Re: Yes ...

[(Anonymous)]

There are solar battery chargers too. And flashlights/headlamps if planning for power outages.

I've made a necklace out of a pocket flashlight - good for wandering around at night w/o turning out the lights. Just be careful - it doesn't always show what's right by your feet.

Re: Yes ...

[(Anonymous)]

Oh, and I've heard it suggested that an electric car could be used as a big battery in a pinch.

Re: Yes ...

[ysabetwordsmith]

A multifunction hand-cranked tool is a good investment. You can get features like radio, flashlight, USB charger, etc.

https://www.skilledsurvival.com/hand-crank-radio/

Re: Yes ...

[siberian_skys]

Living off the grid as much as possible would be nice. I draw the line at plumbing, though. Hopefully one of these years I can I change to an electric car. I've been thinking I should have put off the trade-ins until this year. I've been wanting to see the new VW bus. I have a felling that''s going to be out of my price range. It's probably more car than I need anyway.

Re: Yes ...

[(Anonymous)]

The 2024 looks pricey, by my standards.

I've heard something about a conversion kit for older models, but if you're going to be driving an antique you'd better be friendly with the local mechanic (or be one yourself!)

Also be sure to factor in parts/repairs - some older or imported cars might use less-standard parts that are hard to source.

Re: Yes ...

[ysabetwordsmith]

Something that's 5-10 years old is likely a good bet.

Also there are conversions for some other vehicles. Springer vans are very popular for campervans.

Re: Yes ...

[(Anonymous)]

Speaking of campers, I've mused on the possibility of using a cargo trailer as a camper.

Either get an enclosed one and modify it to lock on the inside (and check airflow!) Or get an open-air one and cover with a tarp. Kind of like a modern covered wagon - cargo and sleeping space.

Plus when you're /not/ using it to camp, you have all the advantages of a pickup truck without having to worry about limited seating, gas mileage, driving an oversized vehicle...

Re: Yes ...

[ysabetwordsmith]

Those can work. I also know that some people have modified horse trailers for camper space, because those are so sturdy.

Re: Yes ...

[fianna9]

Look at old school buses too. Those can make large campers for families.

Re: Yes ...

[ysabetwordsmith]

If a new one costs too much, look for used ones several years old whose owners are trading them in for the newest model.

Re: Yes ...

[(Anonymous)]

Older vehicles are less likely to have random bugs - or the ones they do have will be more easily fixable.

Re: Yes ...

[ysabetwordsmith]

Modern vehicles are not only less drivable by me, they are less ridable. By the time it switches to electric vehicles, it won't even be safe for me to be on the road with them. So it's a good thing that I'm less interested in going places, and have largely ceased to give a fuck about other people.