Climate Change

[ysabetwordsmith]

Even moderate levels of warming can unleash extreme climate damage

Some climate futures at 3.6°F (2°C) of warming may be harsher for drought, rain, and fire than average projections at 5.4°F (3°C) or even 7.2°F (4°C), according to a new study.

The findings challenge a common assumption that moderate warming marks a boundary between manageable climate change and severe disruption.


2°C is not moderate. 1.5°C would have been moderate -- causing serious problems, but things civilization could withstand -- except we're far past being able to meet that goal.  2°C is tipping points dumping humans into a global environment unlike what they evolved to live in.  3°C is bend over and kiss your ass goodbye.  (Note that many scientists expect a rise of 3°C or more.)  But don't worry too much about Earth.  It has survived a lot worse.  Eventually species will adapt or new ones will evolve.

Comments

[alatefeline]

I am at a loss for words. But this is probably information worth having anyway.

Thoughts

[ysabetwordsmith]

Information about the problems caused by other people's stupidity is useful in figuring out how to deal with the mess. For climate change, it is vital to remember that no matter how bad things are, it's worth mashing on the brakes as best we can, to reduce how much worse it gets.

We actually know lots of things that can buffer some of the damage, and some of those things can be done locally.

* Recruit ecosystem engineers like beavers or buffalo.

* Promote healthy forests.

* Create refugia for wildlife. Even tiny ones help.

* Maximize genetic diversity in crops and livestock.

* Cool temperatures are always right under your feet, so knowing how to create an earth shelter is valuable.

[siliconshaman]

As the late, great, George Carlin said: "The planet is fine, the planet isn't going anywhere. The humans however, are fucked !"

On a scale of outcomes, we have; "stress-testing civilization, conditions incompatible with advanced civilization, conditions incompatible with any kind of civilization, and conditions incompatible with human life!"

Looks like the probable outcome is hovering somewhere between outcomes two and three, currently. Lets hope it doesn't get worse. I like this little blue/green marble of ours and would rather not leave.

[freyjaw]

You beat me to quoting St. George of Carlin.

[siliconshaman]

The patron saint of pithy quotes, among other things.

Thoughts

[ysabetwordsmith]

>> As the late, great, George Carlin said: "The planet is fine, the planet isn't going anywhere. The humans however, are fucked !" <<

LOL yes.

>> On a scale of outcomes, we have; "stress-testing civilization,<<

So far, there are a lot of failures. Climate change is one of the leading reasons for civilization collapse. It drives things like war and mass migrations, which we are already seeing.

>> conditions incompatible with advanced civilization, conditions incompatible with any kind of civilization, and conditions incompatible with human life!" <<

Yep. Quite possibly those are +1-2C, +2-3C, +3-4C, and 4C+.

>> Looks like the probable outcome is hovering somewhere between outcomes two and three, currently.<<

This matches my observations.

>> Lets hope it doesn't get worse. I like this little blue/green marble of ours and would rather not leave.<<

Bear in mind that these are not global outcomes. Some places are already very fringe and will be the first to become uninhabitable. We've already lost some settlements due to environmental foreclosure like sea level rise, coastal erosion, and drought. We're moving into the area where heat waves in desert and humid tropical areas will exceed human survivability for so much time that people leave or die. Of course, it's possible to keep an outpost in an inhospitable place like Antarctica, but the whole place needs life support equipment to sustain livable conditions inside a mostly-sealed structure, plus all supplies must be delivered. So it's unfeasible to support a whole population.

Re: Thoughts

[siliconshaman]

As William Gibson said; "The future is here, it's just not evenly distributed."

Your observations match mine. We can see what it's going to be like, because some places are already there, because they started further along. Their baseline was already marginal, and while the change is roughly the same, it means they are further ahead along the curve.

I suspect global catastrophe, where everywhere is uninhabitable is in the +5^oC area...although that's only the start point for a runaway greenhouse effect, resulting in marginally cooler Venus-like conditions where surface temps are 'only' 200^oC on average.

Even then I'd say that's maybe only 25% probable. In event of 5 degrees of warming we're more likely to end up with temperate conditions at the poles ranging to sub-tropical in the upper latitudes, tropical around the mid latitudes to hot desert in the topic to equator zone.

Re: Thoughts

[ysabetwordsmith]

>>As William Gibson said; "The future is here, it's just not evenly distributed."<<

That's true.

>>Your observations match mine. We can see what it's going to be like, because some places are already there, because they started further along. Their baseline was already marginal, and while the change is roughly the same, it means they are further ahead along the curve.<<

Exactly.

Also, some places are hit harder and faster because of where they are. The Arctic is warming faster, hence some coastal villages sliding off of cliffs. The low-lying islands in many places are being abandoned as they go underwater. And so on.

>> I suspect global catastrophe, where everywhere is uninhabitable is in the +5oC area...although that's only the start point for a runaway greenhouse effect, resulting in marginally cooler Venus-like conditions where surface temps are 'only' 200oC on average.<<

Life is a very robust buffer and extremely hard to kill off. Kill the megafauna, sure, the typical survival threshold for land mammals is only around 50 pounds; but not even the Great Farting Oxygen Event killed everything and that one flipped the entire atmosphere. Earth has bee a lot hotter in the past than it is now. The biosphere has survived sudden impact changes. It will be fine. Humans, that remains to be seen.

>> Even then I'd say that's maybe only 25% probable. In event of 5 degrees of warming we're more likely to end up with temperate conditions at the poles ranging to sub-tropical in the upper latitudes, tropical around the mid latitudes to hot desert in the topic to equator zone.<<

Yeah, it's pretty common in a cookoff for the poles to remain habitable, separated by a very hostile equatorial zone. We have the whole of Antarctica, as it emerges from the ice. I honestly expect that some species will revive from dormant stages. I'd bet on tardigrades. Weed seeds may still be viable.

Re: Thoughts

[ionelv]

Humans have long exceeded the optimal virulence threshold for their host and the most likely scenarios are that either the host dies or we die. As long as profits dictate policy, there is no off-ramp. Sadly, only one or more worldwide pandemics (at Black Death level or higher), global wars, an AI singularity, an overt takeover by our reptilian infiltrators and/or a Vogon “project” might postpone the inevitable.

Re: Thoughts

[ysabetwordsmith]

>> Humans have long exceeded the optimal virulence threshold for their host and the most likely scenarios are that either the host dies or we die. As long as profits dictate policy, there is no off-ramp. <<

Alas, true.

>> Sadly, only one or more worldwide pandemics (at Black Death level or higher), global wars, an AI singularity, an overt takeover by our reptilian infiltrators and/or a Vogon “project” might postpone the inevitable.<<

We already know the mechanisms that will make drastic reductions in human population:
* Wars: already in progress, sure to increase with climate change.
* Food shortages and famines: occurring periodically now, sure to get a lot worse.
* Natural disasters: hurricanes, wildfires, floods, landslides, etc. are worsening. Heat waves will get enormously worse, including in areas unequipped for them, causing great preventable loss of life.
* Disease outbreaks: along with other health problems, these tend to follow other threats such as war and famine which reduce infrastructure and health.

While AI singularity is possible, it is not sustainable. AI requires massive amounts of resources including water and energy. It's just too far down the curve for that to last. Humans have already used up a lot of the supplies that would be necessary for something like a Matrix or Terminator scenario. *ponder* Come to think of it, I don't think anyone has written that kind of story, where the AI takes over but then has the horrible realization of impending doom.

[freyjaw]

Connecting certain refuges will be necessary to promote migration and genetic diversity. Trap a population without an influx of new genes, and inbreeding results.

[siliconshaman]

*side eyes certain southern US states*

Some places haven't got that much lee-way to start with.

Yes ...

[ysabetwordsmith]

True for both wildlife and human populations. On continents, efforts are underway to reconnect some fragmented habitats. But that won't save populations on islands, or other island-like habitats such as mountains.

In particular, humans resist migrations of other human populations, often with violence. This leads to increasing problems as more places become difficult or impossible to survive in. One possible cause of civilization collapse would be if the weather gets so chaotic that large-scale agriculture simply stops working. The only way to survive would be to stay mobile and follow the resources. Nomadism is a great survival strategy, and how humans evolved, but it is incompatible with modern civilizations.

[pronker]

This guy had an interesting idea gleaned from his home country ...

Yes ...

[ysabetwordsmith]

I've read about that and it is impressive.

Various parts of the world have underground settlements indicating this as an effective means of surviving hostile conditions. I heartily encourage people to explore underground construction in the fact of climate change, because you really don't have to dig down very far to reach where the temperature stays relatively stable year-round.

Re: Yes ...

[pronker]

Right. I've been in caves across the US and 55 degrees is standard temp down there.

Re: Yes ...

[ysabetwordsmith]

Caves (humanity's first shelter), cliff dwellings, underground homes, etc. share similar qualities. You can even get a similar effect above ground with enough thermal mass, as in a traditional hogan, although the range of variation is wider.