How to Survive 3°C+ Warming
Jan. 22nd, 2025 01:49 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
ysabetwordsmithAmerica has voted for more climate change. Let's take a look at what that means and how you can cope with it...
How do America's choices influence climate change?
America is among the biggest, richest, and most influential countries. A major contributor to climate change, it has also led some endeavors to mitigate the damages and avoid a catastrophic future. However, the current trajectory now favors much worse climate change, as the new administration attacks any limits on business and promotes fossil fuel technology. This undermines the efforts of saner people to stop cooking off the atmosphere of the planet.
Americans elect a climate change denier (again)
The Most Important Actions States Can Take in 2025 to Protect Climate Progress
How hot will it get?
In practice, that depends first on what choices people make, and in prediction, it depends on what models people use.
Right now a lot of people are making choices that could result in truly dire levels of climate change. Current levels are already causing many disasters. Troublesome warming is already locked in. The question is whether we can hold it down to today's merely awful levels, or make it somewhat worse, or make it catastrophically worse. Current climate policies will lead to about 2.7ºC of global warming by the end of the century. That well exceeds the Paris Agreement goal of 1.5ºC. Meeting the Paris target is already unlikely and rapidly heading for impossible. We know what to do; people just damn well don't want to do it. In fact, 2024 was the hottest year on record and crossed the 1.5°C threshold for the first time. Americans had opportunities to express their desires for future action, and they overwhelmingly voted for candidates whose platforms will worsen climate change. So when you're looking at those predictive spreads of how hot it could get, factor in people's poor life choices.
Predicting how hot it will get is difficult. Not only is the Earth a very complex system with a volatile political atmosphere, most predictions derive from limited models. That makes them inaccurate and leads to a pattern you've probably noticed in which scientists frequently revise their predictions for things get much worse than expected, but rarely revise them for things to get better. Plus tipping points can make drastic changes very fast that may invalidate previous predictions altogether. Learn more about tipping points and read a list of them.
Here's a look at predictions from 2°C to 6°C with the highest probability around 2.5°C to 3.5°C. Guess what? That "moderate" range is already well into "Bend over and kiss your ass goodbye" territory. In a survey of climate scientists, the 211 survey respondents were generally pessimistic about the likelihood of reaching the Paris targets given current policies, with 86% estimating warming above 2 degrees Celsius by 2100. The median estimate was 2.7 degrees Celsius, which is expected to have catastrophic consequences for people and the planet. These folks know a lot about climate, but they tend to be specialists, so they're not necessarily collating data from multiple fields; and even within their own field, they may leave out factors that could drastically influence outcomes. Data-cropping will screw predictions to the wall.
I generally calculate that a problem is about two or three times as bad as people say it is. Looking across many studies, I can put the pieces together and see some ways in which they will create feedback loops and tipping points, which are not necessarily as obvious if looking at just one piece. Starting from where we are now or a little warmer than that, double 1.5°C is 3°C and triple is 4.5°C. Starting with the prediction of 2.7°C, double is 5.4°C and triple is 8.1°C. I'm confident that Earth will blow past 1.5°C and probably past 2°C, making 2024 a fond memory of less hell in the very soon future. I think 3°C is a good place to start planning, but 4°C is likely. My friendsiliconshaman estimates 5°C based on his reading of diverse studies; I find this fairly plausible.
So let's take a look at how rising temperatures could affect life on Earth. Note that I could only find references up to +6°C. If scientists have calculated beyond that, they are not yet sharing those results widely.
1.5°C: what it means and why it matters
What 2C of Warming Will Look Like -- Earth.Org
Brutal heatwaves and submerged cities: what a 3C world would look like
The World Is On Track To Warm 3 Degrees Celsius This Century. Here’s What That Means.
Impacts of a 4°C global warming
Comparing climate impacts at 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C and 4°C
What happens if the world warms up by 5C?
On 6 degrees of climate change
What will climate feel like in 60 years?
This page allows you to select City A and match it with City B, such that the future climate of City A is predicted to resemble the current climate of City B. This enables you to visit City B and think about what adaptations of plants, hardscaping, culture, etc. will be beneficial in handling those changes. To double the severity, simply select City B and compare it to City C as furnished by the website, in case you believe the changes will be more severe than initially predicted.
Are people really destroying the world?
No. Destroying a planet is incredibly difficult. Earth will be fine even if humans die out, and indeed, the biosphere would be better off without one of the most invasive and destructive species ever to exist. But not the most: that would be whatever plant first harnessed the fire of the Sun to invent photosynthesis and then farted so much oxygen that it changed Earth from a reducing atmosphere to an oxidizing atmosphere and almost everything else died. Most people don't count the first mass extinction (that we know of) because we know so little about it other than it happened, but there it was.
People aren't likely to destroy the biosphere either, which is also incredibly difficult. It has survived multiple mass extinctions and not only didn't die, but grew back richer and more complex after every one. What doesn't kill a biosphere definitely makes it stronger.
What people are destroying includes the photogenic megafauna, some vitally important smaller species like bees and corals, many plants including major food crops and keystone species, current ecological relationships, and the overall evolutionary conditions in which Homo sapiens evolved and is therefore equipped to handle. From this follows that they may destroy human civilization (likely) and species (less likely but possible).
It's just the humanocentric tendency to equate "destroying civilization" or "destroying humanity" with "destroying the world."
Discovering Existential Risk
How to Destroy the Earth
Not just wipe out humanity, but unmake the planet itself: harder than it sounds. Fortunately.
Human Civilization Will Crumble by 2050 If We Don't Stop Climate Change Now, New Paper Claims
S-risks: An Introduction
S-risks deal in astronomical suffering, far beyond current examples, but within the realm of possibility.
S-risks: Why they are the worst existential risks, and how to prevent them
Moving into fan-relevant territory, this one gives a ghastly example of S-risks from Black Mirror.
X-risks
What are some hazards of climate change?
Climate change poses many threats, which will definitely get worse as the baked-in warming progresses. However, the rate of change varies across the world, with the Arctic warming about four times faster than average. Also, the exact threats vary depending on local conditions, so for instance some places face more droughts and wildfires while others face more storms and flooding.
To prepare as best you can for a disruptive future, first study the hazards mostly likely in your locale and how to address them. Then study other common climate change risks that you may encounter moving around or talking with others in far-flung places, along with how to handle those. In all regards, knowledge helps because the more time you can fill with purposeful action, the less time you have to worry.
* Extreme heat. Potentially lethal heat waves are becoming more frequent, hotter, and longer.
-- Know the safety precautions for high heat. In particular, extreme heat can injure or kill human kidneys, especially without enough water.
-- Remember that human-safe temperature is right under your feet. Not far below ground, it stays the same temperature all the time. This is how root cellars work, and how underground houses work. Both of these ancient technologies have helped humans survive challenging hot and cold climates in the past, and can do so now. In fact whole cities have been built underground, which will doubtless be easier with artificial lighting. If you own property, you can build a root cellar / cooling room; if not, just remember that most human settlements have underground areas.
-- Consider historic structures. A chickee hut has an elevated platform under a roof, but the walls are mats or screens that can be rolled up or down as desired. This traditional southeastern shelter is ideal for coping with wet heat and even floods. For the dry heat of the southwest, a hogan stays cool during the day but also protects against chilly desert nights.
-- To help wildlife, build a hibernaculum underground; the term refers to shelter for cold weather but it also protects against hot weather.
-- Where electricity is fairly reliable, stock air conditioners and fans for use in case residential systems fail or are insufficient. It is best to buy these on sale at the end of the season when they are cheap, but watch for bargains at any time. This is a good way to save lives, which requires no risk or physical labor on your part, just a very modest amount of storage space.
* Drought. As climate change worsens, many places will experience more frequent, longer, and deeper droughts.
-- Learn xeriscaping to conserve water in landscapes. Just choosing plants native to your area will help a lot. If your climate is rapidly drying out, however, consider other species native to the next-dryer category near your locale. See a global map and a North American map of habitat types related to rainfall. More local maps are often available if you search for your area.
-- Grow drought-resilient crops. Corn, squash, and beans all store well and will keep you alive. Thank the Southwest tribes for developing these and other crops that can survive arid conditions. Even if you don't garden, you can watch for these at stores, farmer's markets, and restaurants where buying them will encourage other people to grow more of them.
-- Use permaculture methods to conserve water and keep it from escaping. These are especially useful for coping with climate change patterns where rain occurs in brief deluges that you must capture to use for the long dry spells.
-- Know multiple ways of purifying water, and be prepared to stack them to remove different contaminants.
* Floods. Climate change causes worse and more frequent flooding. Some areas will get way more rain than they used to. Others will just have their rain compacted into a few deluges instead of spread out. In some cases, floodplains or other low-lying areas may become completely uninhabitable.
-- Buildings on slopes are much less vulnerable to flooding than those on flatlands. It doesn't even have to be a natural slope; this subdivision was designed to cope with hurricanes and subsequent flooding such that ponds, swales, and streets catch water while the houses are raised higher up.
-- Rain gardens help catch and clean stormwater. Choose plants that can tolerate wide wet-dry swings, as the garden will fill up with water during a rain but then dry out. These plants can also be placed elsewhere if erratic weather means wide variations in water level throughout your area.
-- Wetlands absorb water fluctuations, so restoring them can minimize flooding. Bigger is better, but even a small improvement can help. Neighborhoods and towns can put in a wetland park, or run stormwater through a marsh filter before it spills into retention ponds.
-- If you live in flood-prone terrain, consider keeping life jackets and a small watercraft like a canoe or inflatable raft. It is best to avoid floodwater completely, but boating is better than drowning.
* Hurricanes and other violent storms. Hurricanes are powered by warm water, so they are getting stronger and more frequent. But climate change also promotes other raging windstorms, tornadoes, and so forth.
-- Plant trees resistant to wind and ice damage, or along the coasts, hurricane-resistant trees.
-- Hurricane-resistant housing includes dome homes (e.g. geodesic domes or monolithic domes), underground homes on a slope with back to the prevailing wind, and homes with very thick walls such as rammed earth.
-- Shop for wind protection. Various hurricane protection products can defend against most high winds. A storm porch designed to withstand tornadoes will also protect against other violent weather.
-- If possible, learn to use a chainsaw and keep at least one, preferably several of different sizes, for use in clearing stormfall. In many areas, professionals are already overextended and cannot handle the surge in demand from a storm.
-- Mangrove forests buffer against hurricanes and tsunamis, so watch for projects to protect or restore those.
* Weakening or collapse of the ocean conveyor system. This will disrupt weather patterns all over the globe.
-- If you live in the parts of the northern Europe impacted by this, be prepared for a large, abrupt drop in temperatures leading to much colder winters without the tempering of warm currents.
-- If you live in a monsoon region, be prepared for storms to shift southward, meaning that some farmers may need to switch crops to those less dependent on monsoon rains.
* Rising sea levels. As ice melts and water warms, the oceans take up more space. Ironbound coasts (up a tall rocky cliff) will be less impacted, but low sloping coasts will be inundated. About 15% of global population lives within a few miles of a coast, and considerably more the wider that range is set. This means vast numbers of people will soon be displaced.
-- If you live near a coast, check your slope. Unless you are up a high cliff above the waterline, moving farther inland would be safer. It is better to do this while there are still people foolish enough to consider coastal property valuable who will take it off your hands.
-- If you live inland, check with friends or family who live near a coast to see if they have backup plans for rising water.
-- If you travel to coastal areas, beware of sunny-day floods due to rising waters and high tides.
* Ecosystem disruptions. As climate change progresses, species adapt at different rates, throwing vital relationships out of synch. Some move, jarring both their original system and whatever they move into. Others fail to adapt and dwindle or die out, leaving gaps.
-- Use keystone plant species. Key genera include:
-- Offer food supplies. Natural foods are ideal. Choose the right foods and feeders for the birds you have.
-- Create nesting sites. Nest boxes help cavity nesters such as birds and flying squirrels. Pollinators need diverse nesting sites. Some use plants with hollow stems.
-- Wildlife corridors help in many ways. It's not just about the big conservation paths, though. Many species can leapfrog from one small oasis to another. Neighborhood parks, wildlife ponds, birdfeeders, and even containers on a balcony all provide vital refuges for wildlife on the move. Every little bit helps!
-- If you are concerned about loss of native species and/or intrusion of invasive species, the Bradley method of habitat restoration costs nothing but time, and requires nothing but knowledge and maybe a weeding tool plus a sturdy pair of gloves. All you do is dig up things that don't belong. It works impressively well.
-- If you are concerned that your area might lose most or all its plants, consider making a weed bottle. Weeds are bandage plants designed for emergency response, some of the toughest and most adaptable species around. Favor native weeds rather than exotic ones, and ideally, edible or medicinal ones. Keystones like goldenrods are another good bet for shoring up mangled ecosystems.
-- As much as possible, avoid damaging what natural habitat remains. Leave it for the wildlife, who need all the help they can get.
* Agriculture and food security. Most effects from climate change will negatively impact food supplies in complex ways around the world. However, the exact challenges will depend on the local conditions and preferred foods per culture. Of all choices, most people have the most freedom in what they eat, limited by such factors as what is sold, what can grow, and what they can digest safely. Use it wisely.
-- Identify food pantries, soup kitchens, and other survival resources in your locale. You can donate to them in good times and rely on them in bad times. If you garden, check who takes excess produce. I've found everything from tabasco peppers to persimmons at ours.
-- Stock at least a few foods in your home that are acceptable to the widest possible range of dietary needs, just in case you have guests or refugees with different needs from your own. These are also good to donate. Consider allergy issues as well as philosophical ones.
-- Learn the specific threats to crops in your area, and find cultivars that resist those threats. Ideally, grow landrace crops that are adapted to your growing conditions and have the genetic diversity to withstand new challenges. The Buffalo Seed Company stocks many of the Lofthouse landraces.
-- Consider a climatarian diet. No, it's not a new idea. Diet for a Small Planet is over 50 years old. Imagine if people had listened to the hippies back then, we wouldn't be in this mess now.
-- Diversify your diet. Of Earth's 400,000+ plant species, humans could eat about 300,000. However, they have only cultivated about 7,000 species, only 200 or so are at all commonly eaten, and 15 of those provide 90% of the world's calories. Screw that. Here are 490+ plants you can eat. In any extinction event, generalists have a tremendous advantage over specialists.
-- Reduce or eliminate your use of cow products, as cattle are the worst livestock for the environment. Consider substituting pork, poultry, eggs, or plant proteins. Wild game is good if you can get it and don't overhunt the supply. Some livestock is tiny enough to raise in small space or even indoors such as chickens, ducks, quail, rabbits, and guinea pigs (yes, they're a meat animal). Inland aquaculture faces challenges, but can be quite sustainable, and farmed catfish in particular tends to taste much better than wild.
-- If you grow at least some of your own food, choose heritage breeds of livestock and antique, heirloom, open-pollinated, or landrace crops. These will be able to reproduce themselves and hopefully have enough genetic diversity to survive multiple threats. Do not overlook the "grade" animals as long as they are healthy, from alley cats to brush goats. Their high genetic diversity may make them more valuable than overbred show animals. Same with randombred plants like seedling apples.
-- Develop your foraging skills. You can often get better food this way, and it's good to know how.
-- Cultivate edible plants native to your area. They tend to be much more durable than imported garden plants. Think about how things like dandelions and wild raspberries grow with zero care from anyone.
-- Memorize the universal edibility test. In the absence of familiar foods, it enables you to identify plants you can eat.
* Economic impacts. Climate change is already making life harder and will get much worse, faster than most people realize. Happily this is an area where you just need knowledge to make a big impact, rather than money or a robust body.
-- Cash is just paper. Credit is just imagination. Once governments really start to flounder, you will need other means of exchange. This happens every time civilization breaks down, so there are lots of known options and some that are quite reliable that people rarely talk about nowadays.
-- Alternative currencies are also known as complementary currencies because they supplement legal tender. They work great for keeping wealth in the community. However, should the primary currency collapse, it is useful to know how to establish your own.
-- Commodity money is any useful item that is portable and extremely popular such as gold, tobacco, salt, chocolate, cows, or stamps. One that used to be the top of the list but few people remember is sugar, meaning any sugary food such as cane sugar, honey, maple syrup, dates, etc. One that almost nobody thinks of but is tremendously valuable to those who need it is menstrual supplies. If you can't find tampons to trade, know how to make reusable cloth pads. You'll probably be the only supplier.
-- Barter is older than the human species. You can set up a bartering club. A time bank or hour exchange is a type of barter based on services rather than goods. This post lists both goods and services in high demand for barter.
* Climate refugees. Although not classed as refugees by world governments, and thus unprotected, that's what they are. Environmental foreclosure is already occurring and will rapidly increase, driving millions or even billions of people from their homes and into places where other people don't want them. Some will be internally displaced, others internationally displaced. This could be you, your family, or your friends.
-- Explore ways to help refugees and think which you could do.
-- Know where your people are. Know both your local hazards and theirs. Where possible, connect with folks whose risks are opposite yours, e.g. Gulf Coast hurricanes (warm season, south) vs. blizzards (cold season, north). You can provide backup for each other if necessary.
-- Keep food, first aid supplies, bedding, spare clothes, and other necessities that you can share if at all possible. Even if you can't solve the base problem, you can often mitigate some of the damage.
-- Learn foreign languages, and in this context, favor world languages, supraregional ones, or other lingua francas. Good choices include Arabic, Chinese, English, Esperanto, French, German, and Spanish. Latin is still worth considering as a scholarly language.
-- As fast as possible, weave refugees into the local community. Get them food, clothing, shelter, and health care connections. Then check if they are ready to work, and when they are, find them a job or at least a volunteer activity. Feeling useless and disconnected can break people.
What can we do about this?
Climate change is a massive challenge, but no species is exempt from evolutionary challenges. It is surmountable if people choose to address it sufficiently. You have free will, and nobody can take that from you. Probably you have at least a fair amount of agency too. So start where you are, use what you have, do what you can. Plan to take care of yourself and yours as much as possible, because you can't necessarily count on the government or anyone else to help you. Free will means people can be stupid if they wish, and many do. You know better. Choose wisely.
Reach out and form your own support network. Intentional neighboring is a good place to start. If you want to extend your reach, explore intentional community. In North America, look into Strong Towns; in the United Kingdom and Europe, they're Transition Towns. There's also a Homestead Network.
Learn survival skills. These will be useful in many circumstances, and there's a huge range to consider, so you can pick ones that work for you. Furthermore, many are things you can talk someone through over the phone or internet if necessary. Here are some free online books of survival skills.
Gather books that will be useful in surviving calamities and jumpstarting civilization if necessary. I listed some good examples in "The Seeds of Civilization" and its notes. I also recommend the very snarky but very useful How to Invent Everything: A Survival Guide for the Stranded Time Traveler.
Include some entertainment, because in a crisis that can keep people from killing each other. A deck of cards and rules for card games, a bag of dice and rules for dice games, writing materials and pencil-paper games, etc. will get you far. Memorize the PDQ Core and you can roleplay anything.
If you have limitations, you can still help. No money? Look for free or cheap options, and consider volunteering or donating materials instead of cash. Physical or mental issues? You might find ways to work around them, or alternatively, store knowledge and resources. You don't need to do everything yourself; nobody is good at everything, and someone will be desperately grateful for what you know or can do that they can't.
Always remember that the future is made of choices, the way a river is made of raindrops. While people in power have a lot of influence, they derive that because other people pay attention to them. So if large numbers of people made different choices, then different leaders would rise to power and they would behave differently, because most politicians care a very great deal about what people think of them.
When looking at climate change and personal efforts, one of the best ethical tools is asking, "What if everyone did that?" For instance, cattle produce a lot of the potent greenhouse gas methane, making them the worst livestock for climate change. Farmers only raise cattle because people buy products such as beef and milk. If you as an individual minimize or avoid cow products, that reduces your carbon footprint. But if people en masse chose other products, then demand for cattle would plummet, thus greatly reducing their numbers.
Even though individual choices can't stop climate change, they can greatly influence how you personally experience those changes. Your choices now will affect how bearable you find your future. Choose mindfully.
How do America's choices influence climate change?
America is among the biggest, richest, and most influential countries. A major contributor to climate change, it has also led some endeavors to mitigate the damages and avoid a catastrophic future. However, the current trajectory now favors much worse climate change, as the new administration attacks any limits on business and promotes fossil fuel technology. This undermines the efforts of saner people to stop cooking off the atmosphere of the planet.
Americans elect a climate change denier (again)
The Most Important Actions States Can Take in 2025 to Protect Climate Progress
How hot will it get?
In practice, that depends first on what choices people make, and in prediction, it depends on what models people use.
Right now a lot of people are making choices that could result in truly dire levels of climate change. Current levels are already causing many disasters. Troublesome warming is already locked in. The question is whether we can hold it down to today's merely awful levels, or make it somewhat worse, or make it catastrophically worse. Current climate policies will lead to about 2.7ºC of global warming by the end of the century. That well exceeds the Paris Agreement goal of 1.5ºC. Meeting the Paris target is already unlikely and rapidly heading for impossible. We know what to do; people just damn well don't want to do it. In fact, 2024 was the hottest year on record and crossed the 1.5°C threshold for the first time. Americans had opportunities to express their desires for future action, and they overwhelmingly voted for candidates whose platforms will worsen climate change. So when you're looking at those predictive spreads of how hot it could get, factor in people's poor life choices.
Predicting how hot it will get is difficult. Not only is the Earth a very complex system with a volatile political atmosphere, most predictions derive from limited models. That makes them inaccurate and leads to a pattern you've probably noticed in which scientists frequently revise their predictions for things get much worse than expected, but rarely revise them for things to get better. Plus tipping points can make drastic changes very fast that may invalidate previous predictions altogether. Learn more about tipping points and read a list of them.
Here's a look at predictions from 2°C to 6°C with the highest probability around 2.5°C to 3.5°C. Guess what? That "moderate" range is already well into "Bend over and kiss your ass goodbye" territory. In a survey of climate scientists, the 211 survey respondents were generally pessimistic about the likelihood of reaching the Paris targets given current policies, with 86% estimating warming above 2 degrees Celsius by 2100. The median estimate was 2.7 degrees Celsius, which is expected to have catastrophic consequences for people and the planet. These folks know a lot about climate, but they tend to be specialists, so they're not necessarily collating data from multiple fields; and even within their own field, they may leave out factors that could drastically influence outcomes. Data-cropping will screw predictions to the wall.
I generally calculate that a problem is about two or three times as bad as people say it is. Looking across many studies, I can put the pieces together and see some ways in which they will create feedback loops and tipping points, which are not necessarily as obvious if looking at just one piece. Starting from where we are now or a little warmer than that, double 1.5°C is 3°C and triple is 4.5°C. Starting with the prediction of 2.7°C, double is 5.4°C and triple is 8.1°C. I'm confident that Earth will blow past 1.5°C and probably past 2°C, making 2024 a fond memory of less hell in the very soon future. I think 3°C is a good place to start planning, but 4°C is likely. My friend
siliconshaman estimates 5°C based on his reading of diverse studies; I find this fairly plausible.So let's take a look at how rising temperatures could affect life on Earth. Note that I could only find references up to +6°C. If scientists have calculated beyond that, they are not yet sharing those results widely.
1.5°C: what it means and why it matters
What 2C of Warming Will Look Like -- Earth.Org
Brutal heatwaves and submerged cities: what a 3C world would look like
The World Is On Track To Warm 3 Degrees Celsius This Century. Here’s What That Means.
Impacts of a 4°C global warming
Comparing climate impacts at 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C and 4°C
What happens if the world warms up by 5C?
On 6 degrees of climate change
What will climate feel like in 60 years?
This page allows you to select City A and match it with City B, such that the future climate of City A is predicted to resemble the current climate of City B. This enables you to visit City B and think about what adaptations of plants, hardscaping, culture, etc. will be beneficial in handling those changes. To double the severity, simply select City B and compare it to City C as furnished by the website, in case you believe the changes will be more severe than initially predicted.
Are people really destroying the world?
No. Destroying a planet is incredibly difficult. Earth will be fine even if humans die out, and indeed, the biosphere would be better off without one of the most invasive and destructive species ever to exist. But not the most: that would be whatever plant first harnessed the fire of the Sun to invent photosynthesis and then farted so much oxygen that it changed Earth from a reducing atmosphere to an oxidizing atmosphere and almost everything else died. Most people don't count the first mass extinction (that we know of) because we know so little about it other than it happened, but there it was.
People aren't likely to destroy the biosphere either, which is also incredibly difficult. It has survived multiple mass extinctions and not only didn't die, but grew back richer and more complex after every one. What doesn't kill a biosphere definitely makes it stronger.
What people are destroying includes the photogenic megafauna, some vitally important smaller species like bees and corals, many plants including major food crops and keystone species, current ecological relationships, and the overall evolutionary conditions in which Homo sapiens evolved and is therefore equipped to handle. From this follows that they may destroy human civilization (likely) and species (less likely but possible).
It's just the humanocentric tendency to equate "destroying civilization" or "destroying humanity" with "destroying the world."
Discovering Existential Risk
How to Destroy the Earth
Not just wipe out humanity, but unmake the planet itself: harder than it sounds. Fortunately.
Human Civilization Will Crumble by 2050 If We Don't Stop Climate Change Now, New Paper Claims
S-risks: An Introduction
S-risks deal in astronomical suffering, far beyond current examples, but within the realm of possibility.
S-risks: Why they are the worst existential risks, and how to prevent them
Moving into fan-relevant territory, this one gives a ghastly example of S-risks from Black Mirror.
X-risks
What are some hazards of climate change?
Climate change poses many threats, which will definitely get worse as the baked-in warming progresses. However, the rate of change varies across the world, with the Arctic warming about four times faster than average. Also, the exact threats vary depending on local conditions, so for instance some places face more droughts and wildfires while others face more storms and flooding.
To prepare as best you can for a disruptive future, first study the hazards mostly likely in your locale and how to address them. Then study other common climate change risks that you may encounter moving around or talking with others in far-flung places, along with how to handle those. In all regards, knowledge helps because the more time you can fill with purposeful action, the less time you have to worry.
* Extreme heat. Potentially lethal heat waves are becoming more frequent, hotter, and longer.
-- Know the safety precautions for high heat. In particular, extreme heat can injure or kill human kidneys, especially without enough water.
-- Remember that human-safe temperature is right under your feet. Not far below ground, it stays the same temperature all the time. This is how root cellars work, and how underground houses work. Both of these ancient technologies have helped humans survive challenging hot and cold climates in the past, and can do so now. In fact whole cities have been built underground, which will doubtless be easier with artificial lighting. If you own property, you can build a root cellar / cooling room; if not, just remember that most human settlements have underground areas.
-- Consider historic structures. A chickee hut has an elevated platform under a roof, but the walls are mats or screens that can be rolled up or down as desired. This traditional southeastern shelter is ideal for coping with wet heat and even floods. For the dry heat of the southwest, a hogan stays cool during the day but also protects against chilly desert nights.
-- To help wildlife, build a hibernaculum underground; the term refers to shelter for cold weather but it also protects against hot weather.
-- Where electricity is fairly reliable, stock air conditioners and fans for use in case residential systems fail or are insufficient. It is best to buy these on sale at the end of the season when they are cheap, but watch for bargains at any time. This is a good way to save lives, which requires no risk or physical labor on your part, just a very modest amount of storage space.
* Drought. As climate change worsens, many places will experience more frequent, longer, and deeper droughts.
-- Learn xeriscaping to conserve water in landscapes. Just choosing plants native to your area will help a lot. If your climate is rapidly drying out, however, consider other species native to the next-dryer category near your locale. See a global map and a North American map of habitat types related to rainfall. More local maps are often available if you search for your area.
-- Grow drought-resilient crops. Corn, squash, and beans all store well and will keep you alive. Thank the Southwest tribes for developing these and other crops that can survive arid conditions. Even if you don't garden, you can watch for these at stores, farmer's markets, and restaurants where buying them will encourage other people to grow more of them.
-- Use permaculture methods to conserve water and keep it from escaping. These are especially useful for coping with climate change patterns where rain occurs in brief deluges that you must capture to use for the long dry spells.
-- Know multiple ways of purifying water, and be prepared to stack them to remove different contaminants.
* Floods. Climate change causes worse and more frequent flooding. Some areas will get way more rain than they used to. Others will just have their rain compacted into a few deluges instead of spread out. In some cases, floodplains or other low-lying areas may become completely uninhabitable.
-- Buildings on slopes are much less vulnerable to flooding than those on flatlands. It doesn't even have to be a natural slope; this subdivision was designed to cope with hurricanes and subsequent flooding such that ponds, swales, and streets catch water while the houses are raised higher up.
-- Rain gardens help catch and clean stormwater. Choose plants that can tolerate wide wet-dry swings, as the garden will fill up with water during a rain but then dry out. These plants can also be placed elsewhere if erratic weather means wide variations in water level throughout your area.
-- Wetlands absorb water fluctuations, so restoring them can minimize flooding. Bigger is better, but even a small improvement can help. Neighborhoods and towns can put in a wetland park, or run stormwater through a marsh filter before it spills into retention ponds.
-- If you live in flood-prone terrain, consider keeping life jackets and a small watercraft like a canoe or inflatable raft. It is best to avoid floodwater completely, but boating is better than drowning.
* Hurricanes and other violent storms. Hurricanes are powered by warm water, so they are getting stronger and more frequent. But climate change also promotes other raging windstorms, tornadoes, and so forth.
-- Plant trees resistant to wind and ice damage, or along the coasts, hurricane-resistant trees.
-- Hurricane-resistant housing includes dome homes (e.g. geodesic domes or monolithic domes), underground homes on a slope with back to the prevailing wind, and homes with very thick walls such as rammed earth.
-- Shop for wind protection. Various hurricane protection products can defend against most high winds. A storm porch designed to withstand tornadoes will also protect against other violent weather.
-- If possible, learn to use a chainsaw and keep at least one, preferably several of different sizes, for use in clearing stormfall. In many areas, professionals are already overextended and cannot handle the surge in demand from a storm.
-- Mangrove forests buffer against hurricanes and tsunamis, so watch for projects to protect or restore those.
* Weakening or collapse of the ocean conveyor system. This will disrupt weather patterns all over the globe.
-- If you live in the parts of the northern Europe impacted by this, be prepared for a large, abrupt drop in temperatures leading to much colder winters without the tempering of warm currents.
-- If you live in a monsoon region, be prepared for storms to shift southward, meaning that some farmers may need to switch crops to those less dependent on monsoon rains.
* Rising sea levels. As ice melts and water warms, the oceans take up more space. Ironbound coasts (up a tall rocky cliff) will be less impacted, but low sloping coasts will be inundated. About 15% of global population lives within a few miles of a coast, and considerably more the wider that range is set. This means vast numbers of people will soon be displaced.
-- If you live near a coast, check your slope. Unless you are up a high cliff above the waterline, moving farther inland would be safer. It is better to do this while there are still people foolish enough to consider coastal property valuable who will take it off your hands.
-- If you live inland, check with friends or family who live near a coast to see if they have backup plans for rising water.
-- If you travel to coastal areas, beware of sunny-day floods due to rising waters and high tides.
* Ecosystem disruptions. As climate change progresses, species adapt at different rates, throwing vital relationships out of synch. Some move, jarring both their original system and whatever they move into. Others fail to adapt and dwindle or die out, leaving gaps.
-- Use keystone plant species. Key genera include:
- Oak Trees (Quercus spp.): Support hundreds of caterpillar species, essential for bird diets.
- Willows (Salix spp.): Important for many butterfly and moth species, such as the viceroy butterfly.
- Cherries (Prunus spp.): Including black cherry (Prunus serotina), which supports a variety of insects and birds.
- Sunflowers (Helianthus spp.): Vital for pollinators like bees and butterflies.
- Goldenrods (Solidago spp.): Attract a wide range of insects and provide food for birds.
-- Offer food supplies. Natural foods are ideal. Choose the right foods and feeders for the birds you have.
-- Create nesting sites. Nest boxes help cavity nesters such as birds and flying squirrels. Pollinators need diverse nesting sites. Some use plants with hollow stems.
-- Wildlife corridors help in many ways. It's not just about the big conservation paths, though. Many species can leapfrog from one small oasis to another. Neighborhood parks, wildlife ponds, birdfeeders, and even containers on a balcony all provide vital refuges for wildlife on the move. Every little bit helps!
-- If you are concerned about loss of native species and/or intrusion of invasive species, the Bradley method of habitat restoration costs nothing but time, and requires nothing but knowledge and maybe a weeding tool plus a sturdy pair of gloves. All you do is dig up things that don't belong. It works impressively well.
-- If you are concerned that your area might lose most or all its plants, consider making a weed bottle. Weeds are bandage plants designed for emergency response, some of the toughest and most adaptable species around. Favor native weeds rather than exotic ones, and ideally, edible or medicinal ones. Keystones like goldenrods are another good bet for shoring up mangled ecosystems.
-- As much as possible, avoid damaging what natural habitat remains. Leave it for the wildlife, who need all the help they can get.
* Agriculture and food security. Most effects from climate change will negatively impact food supplies in complex ways around the world. However, the exact challenges will depend on the local conditions and preferred foods per culture. Of all choices, most people have the most freedom in what they eat, limited by such factors as what is sold, what can grow, and what they can digest safely. Use it wisely.
-- Identify food pantries, soup kitchens, and other survival resources in your locale. You can donate to them in good times and rely on them in bad times. If you garden, check who takes excess produce. I've found everything from tabasco peppers to persimmons at ours.
-- Stock at least a few foods in your home that are acceptable to the widest possible range of dietary needs, just in case you have guests or refugees with different needs from your own. These are also good to donate. Consider allergy issues as well as philosophical ones.
-- Learn the specific threats to crops in your area, and find cultivars that resist those threats. Ideally, grow landrace crops that are adapted to your growing conditions and have the genetic diversity to withstand new challenges. The Buffalo Seed Company stocks many of the Lofthouse landraces.
-- Consider a climatarian diet. No, it's not a new idea. Diet for a Small Planet is over 50 years old. Imagine if people had listened to the hippies back then, we wouldn't be in this mess now.
-- Diversify your diet. Of Earth's 400,000+ plant species, humans could eat about 300,000. However, they have only cultivated about 7,000 species, only 200 or so are at all commonly eaten, and 15 of those provide 90% of the world's calories. Screw that. Here are 490+ plants you can eat. In any extinction event, generalists have a tremendous advantage over specialists.
-- Reduce or eliminate your use of cow products, as cattle are the worst livestock for the environment. Consider substituting pork, poultry, eggs, or plant proteins. Wild game is good if you can get it and don't overhunt the supply. Some livestock is tiny enough to raise in small space or even indoors such as chickens, ducks, quail, rabbits, and guinea pigs (yes, they're a meat animal). Inland aquaculture faces challenges, but can be quite sustainable, and farmed catfish in particular tends to taste much better than wild.
-- If you grow at least some of your own food, choose heritage breeds of livestock and antique, heirloom, open-pollinated, or landrace crops. These will be able to reproduce themselves and hopefully have enough genetic diversity to survive multiple threats. Do not overlook the "grade" animals as long as they are healthy, from alley cats to brush goats. Their high genetic diversity may make them more valuable than overbred show animals. Same with randombred plants like seedling apples.
-- Develop your foraging skills. You can often get better food this way, and it's good to know how.
-- Cultivate edible plants native to your area. They tend to be much more durable than imported garden plants. Think about how things like dandelions and wild raspberries grow with zero care from anyone.
-- Memorize the universal edibility test. In the absence of familiar foods, it enables you to identify plants you can eat.
* Economic impacts. Climate change is already making life harder and will get much worse, faster than most people realize. Happily this is an area where you just need knowledge to make a big impact, rather than money or a robust body.
-- Cash is just paper. Credit is just imagination. Once governments really start to flounder, you will need other means of exchange. This happens every time civilization breaks down, so there are lots of known options and some that are quite reliable that people rarely talk about nowadays.
-- Alternative currencies are also known as complementary currencies because they supplement legal tender. They work great for keeping wealth in the community. However, should the primary currency collapse, it is useful to know how to establish your own.
-- Commodity money is any useful item that is portable and extremely popular such as gold, tobacco, salt, chocolate, cows, or stamps. One that used to be the top of the list but few people remember is sugar, meaning any sugary food such as cane sugar, honey, maple syrup, dates, etc. One that almost nobody thinks of but is tremendously valuable to those who need it is menstrual supplies. If you can't find tampons to trade, know how to make reusable cloth pads. You'll probably be the only supplier.
-- Barter is older than the human species. You can set up a bartering club. A time bank or hour exchange is a type of barter based on services rather than goods. This post lists both goods and services in high demand for barter.
* Climate refugees. Although not classed as refugees by world governments, and thus unprotected, that's what they are. Environmental foreclosure is already occurring and will rapidly increase, driving millions or even billions of people from their homes and into places where other people don't want them. Some will be internally displaced, others internationally displaced. This could be you, your family, or your friends.
-- Explore ways to help refugees and think which you could do.
-- Know where your people are. Know both your local hazards and theirs. Where possible, connect with folks whose risks are opposite yours, e.g. Gulf Coast hurricanes (warm season, south) vs. blizzards (cold season, north). You can provide backup for each other if necessary.
-- Keep food, first aid supplies, bedding, spare clothes, and other necessities that you can share if at all possible. Even if you can't solve the base problem, you can often mitigate some of the damage.
-- Learn foreign languages, and in this context, favor world languages, supraregional ones, or other lingua francas. Good choices include Arabic, Chinese, English, Esperanto, French, German, and Spanish. Latin is still worth considering as a scholarly language.
-- As fast as possible, weave refugees into the local community. Get them food, clothing, shelter, and health care connections. Then check if they are ready to work, and when they are, find them a job or at least a volunteer activity. Feeling useless and disconnected can break people.
What can we do about this?
Climate change is a massive challenge, but no species is exempt from evolutionary challenges. It is surmountable if people choose to address it sufficiently. You have free will, and nobody can take that from you. Probably you have at least a fair amount of agency too. So start where you are, use what you have, do what you can. Plan to take care of yourself and yours as much as possible, because you can't necessarily count on the government or anyone else to help you. Free will means people can be stupid if they wish, and many do. You know better. Choose wisely.
Reach out and form your own support network. Intentional neighboring is a good place to start. If you want to extend your reach, explore intentional community. In North America, look into Strong Towns; in the United Kingdom and Europe, they're Transition Towns. There's also a Homestead Network.
Learn survival skills. These will be useful in many circumstances, and there's a huge range to consider, so you can pick ones that work for you. Furthermore, many are things you can talk someone through over the phone or internet if necessary. Here are some free online books of survival skills.
Gather books that will be useful in surviving calamities and jumpstarting civilization if necessary. I listed some good examples in "The Seeds of Civilization" and its notes. I also recommend the very snarky but very useful How to Invent Everything: A Survival Guide for the Stranded Time Traveler.
Include some entertainment, because in a crisis that can keep people from killing each other. A deck of cards and rules for card games, a bag of dice and rules for dice games, writing materials and pencil-paper games, etc. will get you far. Memorize the PDQ Core and you can roleplay anything.
If you have limitations, you can still help. No money? Look for free or cheap options, and consider volunteering or donating materials instead of cash. Physical or mental issues? You might find ways to work around them, or alternatively, store knowledge and resources. You don't need to do everything yourself; nobody is good at everything, and someone will be desperately grateful for what you know or can do that they can't.
Always remember that the future is made of choices, the way a river is made of raindrops. While people in power have a lot of influence, they derive that because other people pay attention to them. So if large numbers of people made different choices, then different leaders would rise to power and they would behave differently, because most politicians care a very great deal about what people think of them.
When looking at climate change and personal efforts, one of the best ethical tools is asking, "What if everyone did that?" For instance, cattle produce a lot of the potent greenhouse gas methane, making them the worst livestock for climate change. Farmers only raise cattle because people buy products such as beef and milk. If you as an individual minimize or avoid cow products, that reduces your carbon footprint. But if people en masse chose other products, then demand for cattle would plummet, thus greatly reducing their numbers.
Even though individual choices can't stop climate change, they can greatly influence how you personally experience those changes. Your choices now will affect how bearable you find your future. Choose mindfully.
(no subject)
Date: 2025-01-23 03:42 pm (UTC)You're welcome!
Date: 2025-01-24 04:49 am (UTC)I post about this stuff a lot. Often, I'm linking science articles about the latest disaster or how scientists grossly underestimated a problem. Plus it's frustrating how governments are lollygagging instead of solving problems, which just got a lot worse. So I wanted to make a list of known issues and concrete ways to address each of those that individuals, companies, or towns could do on their own. Sometimes when others just don't want to help, it is more efficient to go off and do it yourself.
Re: You're welcome!
Date: 2025-01-24 02:34 pm (UTC)Re: You're welcome!
Date: 2025-01-25 10:07 am (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2025-01-23 04:33 pm (UTC)To sum it up. We're in "man the life boats!" territory.
We're not killing planet (I think) but we can kiss goodbye to human civilisation as we know it. Probably within 50-100 years. So anyone under the age of fifty is most likely screwed in ways they can't even imagine.
Thoughts
Date: 2025-01-24 05:42 am (UTC)I would say, stock and check the lifeboats. Climb UP into a lifeboat from a sinking ship. And it won't hit everywhere at the same time. When coastlines submerge, or get hit by 5-6-7 barrages of hurricanes, it will be lifeboat time for them. When the ocean conveyor collapses -- which it could do any year now, it's already weakening -- then that will mean lifeboat time for parts of northern Europe. And so on. So think about your threshold events, what things would cue you to run; or conversely, how you would plan to stay if you think you can handle situations that others won't.
>> We're not killing planet (I think) <<
Nah, she'll be fine. Look at the history: EVERY mass extinction has led to a much greater flourishing after it.
>> but we can kiss goodbye to human civilisation as we know it. Probably within 50-100 years. <<
That matches my estimate. It's possible for humanity to salvage this situation, but they are rapidly running out of time to do so and are not making sufficient efforts.
>> So anyone under the age of fifty is most likely screwed in ways they can't even imagine.<<
I'm never going to forget that kid at the fair this summer waving a Rump sign with such zeal. I'd guess he was around 12-13. That poor little bastard is going to have 60+ years to regret his mistakes, if a disaster doesn't kill him off sooner. I feel sorry for him. There was just this ... heavy sense of fate on him, very gloomy. So I think he's going to be stuck with the long haul.
Who knows, maybe he'll be one of the ones who realizes it was a mistake and does the dirty work trying to clean up after it a decade or two later when the real grind hits. I wonder how long it'll take him to realize how bad he fucked up there. I mean, most of the people making the big mistakes are old, or at least middle adults. They're less likely to admit it and won't have as long anyhow. But the kids. They're going to feel it.
Re: Thoughts
Date: 2025-01-29 04:21 am (UTC)There's an interesting – by which I mean disturbing – paper on how global warming will lead to some places having unsurvivable combinations of heat and humidity. Figures 1 and 2 summarize the conclusion: India, Pakistan, and China are going to get clobbered right quick. Not lethal heat all the time, but increasing amounts of time when it's too hot and humid.
Maybe the rest of us will learn something from their lesson. At least to the extent that that paper's models are accurate, Europe won't be affected for a while. Perhaps they'll manage something.
There's the more disturbing possibility that since that those areas are densely populated, urbanized, and/or cultivated, that the deaths or migrations of people formerly living there will lead to the area becoming forested or otherwise heavily overgrown. There's a hypothesis that the deaths of the New Worlders due to exposure to Old World diseases may have prolonged the Little Ice Age due to reforestation of formerly inhabited areas. If something like that were to happen, that might buy the rest of us a little more time.
Not that I'm rooting for mass deaths and misery; there are far worse outcomes possible as well. Nor do I think it that a little cooling will buy the rest of us that much more time, a decade, maybe. But people seem to get moving in crises; perhaps it'll happen this time.
On the less grimdark side, I'm still slowly working on more things to add to your post. But I'm already involved in a couple of other thinky projects, and a wee bit distracted by the country sinking into tyranny.
Re: Thoughts
Date: 2025-01-29 11:05 am (UTC)It's true that some places will be impacted sooner and worse than others. This is one reason I consider it unlikely for humanity to die out altogether. The question is how much people in the less-worse places will be able to salvage -- and if those places will remain viable over the long term.
Have you seen the mountain problem? As the climate warms, cold-adapted alpine species move upward. But every layer of a mountain habitat is smaller because it's basically a big pyramid.
Now imagine that on a planetary scale, as climate change makes both the equator and its flanking desert regions less survivable for humans. As you move toward the poles, there's less planet -- and the southern hemisphere has much less landmass than the northern hemisphere. Equitorial regions run to high populations. As those populations flood poleward to escape deadly conditions, people will get crowded into less space. Since humans are belligerent, this seems prone to causing mass warfare.
>> There's an interesting – by which I mean disturbing – paper on how global warming will lead to some places having unsurvivable combinations of heat and humidity. <<
It's already hit the wet-bulb threshold several times.
>> Figures 1 and 2 summarize the conclusion: India, Pakistan, and China are going to get clobbered right quick. Not lethal heat all the time, but increasing amounts of time when it's too hot and humid.<<
It doesn't have to be lethal all the time. A few hours is plenty to kill people, and they'll stay dead even after the temperature drops. Furthermore, it doesn't have to be lethal to drive people out. If it's merely too hot to work safely, people wind up leaving, which is already happening in wide areas. Plus of course, some aspects of "lethal" are less obvious than others. A signature injury of climate change is kidney death. Used to be, acute kidney injury was temporary and would heal with care. But do it repeatedly and it turns chronic, which will definitely kill without treatment.
Basically, it's like the sunny-day floods. Your business doesn't have to be underwater all the time, just enough to cross your ledger line from black to red. That's a handful of days for many businesses. They can't sustain the drop in shoppers, so they have to retreat away from the coast.
>> Maybe the rest of us will learn something from their lesson.<<
The problem there is that we're out of time. Hell, we were out of time for avoiding the current mess several decades ago, but at that point we could've avoided the much worse situations we're heading into now. It doesn't matter if people get a clue 10-20 years down the road. If we shut off all carbon activities today -- which is not happening -- climate change would still continue by momentum, plus things like wildfires creating feedback loops. What we need is to pull carbon out of the atmosphere, which is hard and slow.
>> At least to the extent that that paper's models are accurate, Europe won't be affected for a while. Perhaps they'll manage something.<<
Perhaps. But climate models tend to be limited, and it sounds like that one isn't accounting for the ocean conveyor. When that belt breaks, Europe is screwed and so are several major monsoon-reliant areas. Said belt is already weakening dramatically; when it breaks, the temperature in much of Europe will plummet and the monsoons will fail, undermining the ability to grow food in those areas.
>> There's the more disturbing possibility that since that those areas are densely populated, urbanized, and/or cultivated, that the deaths or migrations of people formerly living there will lead to the area becoming forested or otherwise heavily overgrown.<<
Quite possible. Nature can swallow things startlingly fast. Chernobyl is one modern example, which also proves that humanity is more damaging than nuclear radiation. :/
>> There's a hypothesis that the deaths of the New Worlders due to exposure to Old World diseases may have prolonged the Little Ice Age due to reforestation of formerly inhabited areas. If something like that were to happen, that might buy the rest of us a little more time.<<
I've seen that hypothesis. If accurate, it might indeed help.
I expect mass die-offs of humans. First, the worsening conditions will kill many directly via heat and famine. But that will also spark wars as waves of people try to flee to safer grounds and nobody wants to let them in, which I suspect will wipe out far more.
>>Not that I'm rooting for mass deaths and misery; there are far worse outcomes possible as well. Nor do I think it that a little cooling will buy the rest of us that much more time, a decade, maybe. But people seem to get moving in crises; perhaps it'll happen this time.<<
Keep a close eye on the rolling refugee crises. Look at how unwilling other countries are to accept refugees, and how badly refugees are handled if they do make it in. Those are massive points of vulnerability.
Of course, there's always the possibility that someone will view refugees as opportunity and ally with them to mutual benefit. It's been done. It's not common, but is worth watching for.
>>On the less grimdark side, I'm still slowly working on more things to add to your post.<<
Yay!
>> But I'm already involved in a couple of other thinky projects, and a wee bit distracted by the country sinking into tyranny.<<
Hence why I wrote that post. People have made their choices; that is their free will. Now they get to experience the consequences of those choices. Me, I have a zillion things demanding my attention. If humans want to visit Apocalypseland, that's up to them. I can simply redirect my attention and support to the environment.
(no subject)
Date: 2025-01-23 04:47 pm (UTC)Yay!
Date: 2025-01-24 04:36 am (UTC)I'm delighted that people are finding it useful enough to pass around, so thanks for letting me know that.
>> I saved this post for a re-read later, and will probably save the other links here too. Thank you.<<
That's good to hear.
I post a lot about these various topics, although I only got around to making a Climate Change tag recently. Most will be under things like Environment, How To, Nature, News, Safety, or Science.
(no subject)
Date: 2025-01-23 08:47 pm (UTC)