Rapidly Intensifying Hurricanes
Oct. 30th, 2023 12:07 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
ysabetwordsmithScientists find two ways that hurricanes rapidly intensify
New study may help forecasters better predict dangerous storms
Scientists at NCAR have identified two entirely different modes of hurricane rapid intensification. The findings may lead to better understanding and prediction of these dangerous events.
This is a great example of how there isn't always a single answer. Sometimes there is more than one pattern or cause, and conflating them can make it impossible to solve the problem. In particular, things that look similar but aren't may need different responses.
New study may help forecasters better predict dangerous storms
Scientists at NCAR have identified two entirely different modes of hurricane rapid intensification. The findings may lead to better understanding and prediction of these dangerous events.
This is a great example of how there isn't always a single answer. Sometimes there is more than one pattern or cause, and conflating them can make it impossible to solve the problem. In particular, things that look similar but aren't may need different responses.
(no subject)
Date: 2023-10-30 09:24 am (UTC)... and the biologist in me is thinking; "What, you thought there was only one way?!". nature is never that simple.
I would not be surprised if those two modes worked synergistically as well. With the asymmetrical mode kicking a storm up to a cat 1 or 2, and then the symmetrical mode taking over to kick it up to a cat 4 or 5 as conditions changed.
Wouldn't surprise me if there was other modes as well.
Thoughts
Date: 2023-10-31 04:57 am (UTC)Yeah, me too.
>> I would not be surprised if those two modes worked synergistically as well. With the asymmetrical mode kicking a storm up to a cat 1 or 2, and then the symmetrical mode taking over to kick it up to a cat 4 or 5 as conditions changed.<<
That is possible. Hurricanes are so complex, they're endlessly fascinating. People are just starting to realize that it's not all about the wind, a hurricane can be devastating due to storm surge, or torrential rain especially if it squats over the same place for a week and just pisses a river. As global warming progresses, we'll likely discover whole new ways they can kill people and wreck places.
>> Wouldn't surprise me if there was other modes as well.<<
Probable. I'd look at the thermohaline cycle and major air currents, because those things can work like rip-starting a top.