Category 6 Isn't Enough
Apr. 29th, 2021 09:53 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
ysabetwordsmithI have said for some time that the current hurricane scale, which has 5 categories, is insufficient and needs a Category 6. Looking at the actual numbers on the scale and in recorded storms, this turns out to be insufficient also. It doesn't need one more category, it needs TWO.
The current categories average a range of about 20, some lower, some higher. Positing a scale that uses categories of similar size would yield something like:
Category 1 = 74-95 mph (range of 22)
Category 2 = 96-110 mph (range of 15)
Category 3 = 111-129 mph (range of 19)
Category 4 = 130-156 mph (range of 27)
Category 5 = 157+ mph [new 157-176] (standard range of 20)
Category 6 = 177-196 mph
Category 7 = 197-216 mph
At that, the revised scale would just barely cover Hurricane Patricia's ominous 215 mph peak sustained wind speed. O_O That means we should be ready to activate Category 8 (217-236 mph) in the foreseeable future.
Now, the government doesn't want to panic people, or get blamed for the fact that climate change is making hurricanes a lot more violent than they used to be and also now clustering. But wouldn't it be useful to know that the official "Category 5" now contains a wider range (58) than Categories 3 and 4 combined (46)? (Some people may argue that we only need three action-based categories: Ignore It, Batten the Hatches, and Run For Your Lives.) Happily, the forecasts customarily include the actual wind speed, so you can simply adjust the scale on your own.
Of course, wind speed isn't the only thing that makes a hurricane dangerous. As mentioned, clustering means they are now more likely to come in twos or threes. Even a sideswipe by a later storm after the first storm has cracked open a city will be more devastating. Global warming seems to increase the storms that show rapid intensification, which can turn a minor storm into a major one with little warning. Rising sea levels boost storm surges. Warmer air also means that hurricanes can dump more rain. Storm surge and rainfall make even the lower categories more destructive.
Don't expect the politicians and the people they direct to give reliable interpretations. Be glad that pretty accurate weather information is available for you to analyze yourself. Here's a list of weather apps and weather websites with varying degrees of detail. For the hardcore weather nerds, you can also get raw data. Explore the parts of a text Hurricane Forecast/Advisory.
The current categories average a range of about 20, some lower, some higher. Positing a scale that uses categories of similar size would yield something like:
Category 1 = 74-95 mph (range of 22)
Category 2 = 96-110 mph (range of 15)
Category 3 = 111-129 mph (range of 19)
Category 4 = 130-156 mph (range of 27)
Category 5 = 157+ mph [new 157-176] (standard range of 20)
Category 6 = 177-196 mph
Category 7 = 197-216 mph
At that, the revised scale would just barely cover Hurricane Patricia's ominous 215 mph peak sustained wind speed. O_O That means we should be ready to activate Category 8 (217-236 mph) in the foreseeable future.
Now, the government doesn't want to panic people, or get blamed for the fact that climate change is making hurricanes a lot more violent than they used to be and also now clustering. But wouldn't it be useful to know that the official "Category 5" now contains a wider range (58) than Categories 3 and 4 combined (46)? (Some people may argue that we only need three action-based categories: Ignore It, Batten the Hatches, and Run For Your Lives.) Happily, the forecasts customarily include the actual wind speed, so you can simply adjust the scale on your own.
Of course, wind speed isn't the only thing that makes a hurricane dangerous. As mentioned, clustering means they are now more likely to come in twos or threes. Even a sideswipe by a later storm after the first storm has cracked open a city will be more devastating. Global warming seems to increase the storms that show rapid intensification, which can turn a minor storm into a major one with little warning. Rising sea levels boost storm surges. Warmer air also means that hurricanes can dump more rain. Storm surge and rainfall make even the lower categories more destructive.
Don't expect the politicians and the people they direct to give reliable interpretations. Be glad that pretty accurate weather information is available for you to analyze yourself. Here's a list of weather apps and weather websites with varying degrees of detail. For the hardcore weather nerds, you can also get raw data. Explore the parts of a text Hurricane Forecast/Advisory.
Thoughts
Date: 2021-04-30 05:03 am (UTC)- running would be good (likely individual choice)
- organized retreat (likely organized/mandated on a mass scale) <<
The government tries to do this, indicating areas of greatest risk, and suggesting that more vulnerable individuals evacuate for milder storms that able-bodied people might survive just fine. It would be more effective if the government was actually trustworthy. As it is, people often resist leaving their homes because they have repeatedly seen other storms where people that left were looted, not allowed to return, and/or otherwise got screwed. Doesn't do much to flee the storm only to be killed by a country that wants poor people to die. :/
>> - GETOUTGETOUTGETOUTGETOUT...! (At this point, you're evac-ing folks under the "as many as can fit, regulations be dammned," and also, it'll probably be random Heroic Bystanders hauling ass and collecting hangers-on, rather than anything official) <<
Time to hotwire a bus. \o/
>> Cynically there'd also likely be a "We doomed no matter what" setting...but if we make that one official, we'll likely get a Screw the Rules, It's the Apocalypse. <<
Well reasoned.
Re: Thoughts
Date: 2021-04-30 05:51 am (UTC)It would be more effective if the government facilitated transport (including medically-compatible transport) and housing at destinations.
I live with someone who has very specific medical needs for everything from vehicle accessibility to adaptive equipment to /specific features on a bed/. Evac plans must and do factor in these needs...
Less dramatically, pets, babies and old folks will have different needs than an able-bodied adult. Fortunately 'people with pet cats' and 'people with young children's will be numerous enough, and have similar enough needs that it is easier to plan for then individual medically-fragile persons.
>>Time to hotwire a bus. \o/ <<
...and pray they don't shoot you for looting. (Have a respectable-looking person do the hotwiring or supply runs, if you can. Preferably not single parents, caretakers, or medical personnel if you can avoid it.)
Historical examples would include Dunkirk, the 9/11 evacuation of Manhattan, the Cajun Navy and the Great Needlework Drives of just last year.
And anyone who wants to object, can kindly offer a better alternative, thank-you very much. [Crickets] No-one? All right then, let's move!