Critical Slowing Down
Mar. 28th, 2021 02:31 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
ysabetwordsmithCritical slowing down is a warning sign of system collapse, in which a system takes longer and longer to rebound from setbacks. It's a loss of resilience. So any time you see that, worry.
I was amused to see that people, despite studying fish, couldn't think of a way to reset the pond from bass to minnows without poisoning the bass. Flip it around, and from a fisherman's perspective that's actually a known failure mode. If you overfish a bass pond, it turns cloudy and gets overrun by minnows. Then you have to stop taking out the bass and pay for a shipment of young bass at a size larger than the minnows can eat.
Thinking about it further, I am reminded of traditional customs and taboos from around the world that govern the harvest of plants and animals from an ecosystem. Some of these are static, like species that are never to be bothered, but many of them are dynamic: "If X, then Y." You must count so many of a plant within a given area before you can pick any. When the does and fawns have separated and the bucks polish their antlers, you may start hunting deer. If the willow shoots are all eaten off below the knee, stop taking wolves and take deer. If tall willow shoots are choking the water, take wolves and leave the deer alone. To keep a pond in bass mode, it would be, "If the water begins to cloud, stop taking bass" while to keep it in minnow mode it would be, "If the water begins to clear, take bass."
People used to know these things. The elders would know the most, which is why they customarily declared many things such as when to plant or start harvesting. But everyone would know a lot of the parts that applied to them. If something new went wrong, they would observe quietly and try to understand what had changed and how to fix it. Having the science for the pond is nice, but I think people are overlooking some knowledge pools that would help understand how system dynamics work. If you want to know about tipping points, ask tribal elders. Go over the taboos. You'll find a lot of actionable clues in there.
And oh yes, mitakuye oyasin, we are all related. What we do to the world, we do to ourselves. Those old customs were designed to keep the world in balance so it could continue supporting humans. If the world is unhealthy, people cannot be healthy.
I was amused to see that people, despite studying fish, couldn't think of a way to reset the pond from bass to minnows without poisoning the bass. Flip it around, and from a fisherman's perspective that's actually a known failure mode. If you overfish a bass pond, it turns cloudy and gets overrun by minnows. Then you have to stop taking out the bass and pay for a shipment of young bass at a size larger than the minnows can eat.
Thinking about it further, I am reminded of traditional customs and taboos from around the world that govern the harvest of plants and animals from an ecosystem. Some of these are static, like species that are never to be bothered, but many of them are dynamic: "If X, then Y." You must count so many of a plant within a given area before you can pick any. When the does and fawns have separated and the bucks polish their antlers, you may start hunting deer. If the willow shoots are all eaten off below the knee, stop taking wolves and take deer. If tall willow shoots are choking the water, take wolves and leave the deer alone. To keep a pond in bass mode, it would be, "If the water begins to cloud, stop taking bass" while to keep it in minnow mode it would be, "If the water begins to clear, take bass."
People used to know these things. The elders would know the most, which is why they customarily declared many things such as when to plant or start harvesting. But everyone would know a lot of the parts that applied to them. If something new went wrong, they would observe quietly and try to understand what had changed and how to fix it. Having the science for the pond is nice, but I think people are overlooking some knowledge pools that would help understand how system dynamics work. If you want to know about tipping points, ask tribal elders. Go over the taboos. You'll find a lot of actionable clues in there.
And oh yes, mitakuye oyasin, we are all related. What we do to the world, we do to ourselves. Those old customs were designed to keep the world in balance so it could continue supporting humans. If the world is unhealthy, people cannot be healthy.
