Sea Levels Rising

[ysabetwordsmith]

Studies predict an increase in the rate of sea levels rising. This has a particular impact on America's eastern coastline. However, I'm less than pleased about the handwaving of other threatened populations -- there are entire island nations likely to be drowned in the foreseeable future.

Studies Predict Rapid Rise in Sea Levels Along US East Coast
David A. Fahrenthold, The Washington Post: "Sea levels could rise faster along the US East Coast than in any other densely populated part of the world, new research shows, as changes in ice caps and ocean currents push water toward a shoreline inlaid with cities, resort boardwalks and gem-rare habitats."

Comments

[siliconshaman.livejournal.com]

There's a lot of denial going around, even here. People are still getting 25 year mortgages on places on the coast that are less than 6 inches above current sea levels! [and in some cases, below sea level already].

They're going to be paying off still when the tide comes in!

Too true ...

[ysabetwordsmith.livejournal.com]

... and there's another real estate/banking collapse waiting to happen. Coastal property is among the most highly priced, and it's going to lose financial value rapidly whenever people really grasp the problem. That's a lot of loss for the country to absorb, let alone individuals.

Re: Too true ...

[siliconshaman.livejournal.com]

Most of the oldest, and largest, cities are located either on the coast or on rivers that will expand due to estuarine flooding... given that we're looking at a 10-14 meter rise in average sea levels by the end of the century, they'll probably have to be abandoned.

I can't even begin to imagine the kind of economic havoc that the whole-sale abandonment and relocation of even one major city, much less most of them, would cause. [think NOLA/Katrina many times over]

Also, when you consider the impact of starvation caused by the loss of agricultural lands [most of which are on flood plains or in areas that'll be subject to desertification], disease, war caused by mass migration, and so on.. the current estimates are that within a century and a half the human race will have reduced from nearing 8 billion, to just over 1.5 billion...and you can pretty much kiss goodbye to what we think of as civilisation.

Losing a few beach front properties seems pretty trivial in comparison.

Re: Too true ...

[ysabetwordsmith.livejournal.com]

Losing the beachfront properties is part of that process, and needs to be considered. It doesn't have to be the end of civilization, but it's a challenge requiring much adaptation if we are to survive it. The sooner we think about how to respond, the better our chances of success.

We do have some excellent methods at our disposal, if we choose to expand them. Frex, intensive organic farming produces much greater yields than conventional mass farming, and is sustainable. Small, tightly woven communities tend to have lots of fault tolerance and are very resilient in the face of challenges, compared to sprawling towns where few people really know each other. Just as clearcutting speeds desertification, other techniques can slow or even reverse it. Spreading the word increases the number of people available to work on the problem.

Re: Too true ...

[siliconshaman.livejournal.com]

There are lots of things that can be done... what I'm not so sanguine about is whether they will be done in time, or even at all.

We have the means, we seem to lack the will or leadership.
And even those leaders that do seem to have a clue, are held back by those urging caution...so that what they actually do is far too little and often far too late.

Best estimate is that we are already past the critical tipping point, and that the earth won't really settle down into it's new metastable state until we've undergone between 5-6 degrees C of warming...the biggest single jump since the Cretaceous period. [and a lot quicker]. Meaning the earth is about to under-go a period of unimaginable change.

In short, we're pretty much screwed. We can do what we can, but ultimately, it won't matter a great deal. We can't stop it, we might be able to mitigate it a little but the best we can do is hope to survive it...and I doubt that we have sufficient grasp of the scale and nature of the problem in order to adequately prepare for it. Not on any large scale anyway.

Re: Too true ...

[ysabetwordsmith.livejournal.com]

>>We have the means, we seem to lack the will or leadership. <<

That's true.

>>Best estimate is that we are already past the critical tipping point, and that the earth won't really settle down into it's new metastable state until we've undergone between 5-6 degrees C of warming...the biggest single jump since the Cretaceous period. [and a lot quicker]. Meaning the earth is about to under-go a period of unimaginable change. <<

My imagination is having no trouble predicting the kind of mayhem approaching. I've been doing that since I was little. Nobody believed me. I'm not stopping. At least I'll be able to stand in the foyer-ever-after and say, "I TOLD YOU SO."

>>In short, we're pretty much screwed. We can do what we can, but ultimately, it won't matter a great deal. We can't stop it, we might be able to mitigate it a little but the best we can do is hope to survive it...and I doubt that we have sufficient grasp of the scale and nature of the problem in order to adequately prepare for it. Not on any large scale anyway.<<

While the Earth has a large capacity to go splat very quickly, it is also incredibly good at recovering. If we stop the damage, it will start to recover. If we work to undo the damage, it will recover faster. We're already past some unpleasant tipping points; it would be good to refrain from passing more of them. So I'll push for sanity and conservation. I will not be surprised if people choose otherwise; the Earth is littered with the wreckage of prior civilizations, some of which similarly overran their carrying capacity. But who knows, maybe this time people will learn.

[bearleyport.livejournal.com]

...and we'll continue to piss away billions of dollars to rebuild millionaires' estates blown away like matchsticks in hurricanes or to try to prevent their crumbling away into the rising sea. Worse comes to worse, they'll just move inland with their lawyers and private armies to clear our national parks and build gated communities to replace the ones they lost, as if to prove that property is indeed theft.

John D. MacDonald's _Condominium_ was a great novel, by the way, even more relevant now than when it was written years ago.