Category 6 Isn't Enough
Apr. 29th, 2021 09:53 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
ysabetwordsmithI have said for some time that the current hurricane scale, which has 5 categories, is insufficient and needs a Category 6. Looking at the actual numbers on the scale and in recorded storms, this turns out to be insufficient also. It doesn't need one more category, it needs TWO.
The current categories average a range of about 20, some lower, some higher. Positing a scale that uses categories of similar size would yield something like:
Category 1 = 74-95 mph (range of 22)
Category 2 = 96-110 mph (range of 15)
Category 3 = 111-129 mph (range of 19)
Category 4 = 130-156 mph (range of 27)
Category 5 = 157+ mph [new 157-176] (standard range of 20)
Category 6 = 177-196 mph
Category 7 = 197-216 mph
At that, the revised scale would just barely cover Hurricane Patricia's ominous 215 mph peak sustained wind speed. O_O That means we should be ready to activate Category 8 (217-236 mph) in the foreseeable future.
Now, the government doesn't want to panic people, or get blamed for the fact that climate change is making hurricanes a lot more violent than they used to be and also now clustering. But wouldn't it be useful to know that the official "Category 5" now contains a wider range (58) than Categories 3 and 4 combined (46)? (Some people may argue that we only need three action-based categories: Ignore It, Batten the Hatches, and Run For Your Lives.) Happily, the forecasts customarily include the actual wind speed, so you can simply adjust the scale on your own.
Of course, wind speed isn't the only thing that makes a hurricane dangerous. As mentioned, clustering means they are now more likely to come in twos or threes. Even a sideswipe by a later storm after the first storm has cracked open a city will be more devastating. Global warming seems to increase the storms that show rapid intensification, which can turn a minor storm into a major one with little warning. Rising sea levels boost storm surges. Warmer air also means that hurricanes can dump more rain. Storm surge and rainfall make even the lower categories more destructive.
Don't expect the politicians and the people they direct to give reliable interpretations. Be glad that pretty accurate weather information is available for you to analyze yourself. Here's a list of weather apps and weather websites with varying degrees of detail. For the hardcore weather nerds, you can also get raw data. Explore the parts of a text Hurricane Forecast/Advisory.
The current categories average a range of about 20, some lower, some higher. Positing a scale that uses categories of similar size would yield something like:
Category 1 = 74-95 mph (range of 22)
Category 2 = 96-110 mph (range of 15)
Category 3 = 111-129 mph (range of 19)
Category 4 = 130-156 mph (range of 27)
Category 5 = 157+ mph [new 157-176] (standard range of 20)
Category 6 = 177-196 mph
Category 7 = 197-216 mph
At that, the revised scale would just barely cover Hurricane Patricia's ominous 215 mph peak sustained wind speed. O_O That means we should be ready to activate Category 8 (217-236 mph) in the foreseeable future.
Now, the government doesn't want to panic people, or get blamed for the fact that climate change is making hurricanes a lot more violent than they used to be and also now clustering. But wouldn't it be useful to know that the official "Category 5" now contains a wider range (58) than Categories 3 and 4 combined (46)? (Some people may argue that we only need three action-based categories: Ignore It, Batten the Hatches, and Run For Your Lives.) Happily, the forecasts customarily include the actual wind speed, so you can simply adjust the scale on your own.
Of course, wind speed isn't the only thing that makes a hurricane dangerous. As mentioned, clustering means they are now more likely to come in twos or threes. Even a sideswipe by a later storm after the first storm has cracked open a city will be more devastating. Global warming seems to increase the storms that show rapid intensification, which can turn a minor storm into a major one with little warning. Rising sea levels boost storm surges. Warmer air also means that hurricanes can dump more rain. Storm surge and rainfall make even the lower categories more destructive.
Don't expect the politicians and the people they direct to give reliable interpretations. Be glad that pretty accurate weather information is available for you to analyze yourself. Here's a list of weather apps and weather websites with varying degrees of detail. For the hardcore weather nerds, you can also get raw data. Explore the parts of a text Hurricane Forecast/Advisory.
Re: Thoughts
Date: 2021-05-01 01:39 am (UTC)Re: Thoughts
Date: 2021-05-01 01:40 am (UTC)This is a good place to crowdsource problems. We've got a lot of smart people here!
:)
Re: Thoughts
Date: 2021-05-01 01:41 am (UTC)Have you ever noticed that hardcore bikers have a medicine pouch on their handlebars? That is why. So they can go places like Sturgis and Bear Butte without having their bike fall apart. And they all tell stories about people who didn't do that, and wound up carrying their bike.
Re: Thoughts
Date: 2021-05-01 01:43 am (UTC)Re: Thoughts
Date: 2021-05-01 01:44 am (UTC)Re: Thoughts
Date: 2021-05-01 01:55 am (UTC)Another area to look at is along the Appalachian Mountains in its entirety. Those mountains are old and fairly stable, and there are a variety of terrains with different water and soil compositions. There are people there who are also fairly adept at surviving so you can pick up tricks from them.
Re: Thoughts
Date: 2021-05-01 02:02 am (UTC)I'm thinking like a woman-socialized person who has traveled and is friends with travelers (for both recreation and survival).
So I'm thinking in terms of local knowledge of resources and threats, tapping into social networks and alliances, possible sharing of intelligence/resources, and the fact that being nice/kind/polite will often open doors (especially when everyone else is a horse's ass) combined with /the full awareness that you are not a hero just for being kind/.
Re: Thoughts
Date: 2021-05-01 02:03 am (UTC)Some of it's good terrain, especially if you like forests. However, much has been poisoned by mining, and not just one valley, but everything downstream of that -- really bad shit like lead and other heavy metals. O_O
>> There are people there who are also fairly adept at surviving so you can pick up tricks from them.<<
Who also barely talk to you until you have ancestors buried in the local cemetery.
Another problem, serious for most people, is that much of Appalachia has extreme poverty. It's the one place full of white people that can give the reservations a run for bottom place. There are literally whole counties with NO jobs in them. While there are now plenty of nonlocalized jobs, many of those still rely on infrastructure, and Appalachia is very low on that in many places.
That said, consider identifying tourist areas, which have excellent resources -- and then scout the small towns nearby.
Re: Thoughts
Date: 2021-05-01 02:03 am (UTC)Re: Thoughts
Date: 2021-05-01 02:13 am (UTC)Though I suspect the world has been saved more often with kindness than with violence. It's just less conspicuous, so most people don't notice.
Re: Thoughts
Date: 2021-05-01 02:16 am (UTC)Re: Thoughts
Date: 2021-05-01 02:23 am (UTC)Strong Towns has extensive materials on what makes a resilient and enjoyable community. That will tell you a lot about what kinds of features to watch for and avoid.
Transition Towns are more particularly focused on climate change and other major threats, with an eye toward using local community to survive them.
Use a population loss map to identify areas where people are leaving. These typically have real estate much cheaper than areas where people are packing in. You will note that lots of people are crowding into areas that are marginal and getting worse. Their pain can be your gain.
Features particularly valuable in the future:
* Buildings that can reasonably house lots of people without feeling too crowded.
* Plenty of natural resources such as arable land, standing timber, surface or well water, etc.
* Defensibility such as a basement or storm shelter.
* Plan B equipment in case conventional methods fail, e.g. a woodstove or fireplace if the heat goes out, high ceilings and crosscurrent windows in case the air conditioning dies.
Ideally, you want good internet connection, as this enables both socializing and work without depending on local opportunities.
Re: Thoughts
Date: 2021-05-01 02:25 am (UTC)Then you are well set!
>> If things are get that bad bringing in some skills you can swap with them can help bridge that gap. <<
True. Or money, in Appalachia -- anything in short supply has high value.
If you own even the tiniest business employing more than yourself, or you're a reliable source of oddjobs, people will actively protect you. They can't afford to lose any, because there's no fault tolerance in the job market except in a few places.
Re: Thoughts
Date: 2021-05-01 02:26 am (UTC)If I need to flee, say, NYC by myself, I can go pretty much anywhere, including Appalchia, though I'll want to be careful on dark rods and in bars. And I could hole up in a rural area, if I had a local connection, i.e. church, friends, relatives. (I am a pretty white woman.)
If I'm traveling with nonwhite American friends, I'll have to rely on their threat assessments, but I can pretty sure cross off jaunting through Appalachia and some of the more rural South. Suburbs or cities would be safer, but also might have more damage depending on the exact disaster. Our end destination would likely be a larger town or city.
If I'm travelling with nonwhite immigrants, then I say several swearwords and try to figure out what is least dangerous, while running threat assessments I haven't lived. Still likely travel via more populous areas, and end destination with almost certainty would have to be a large city (b/c language limitations and/or less common religious preferences of my traveling companions.) Hopefully some of the people will have American-less-common skills like MacGyvering...
Related: networks. Ask about kin networks, look up local church-or-equivalent of any religion you've got in the group, ask if anyone has a local friend who might have advice or a couch or whatever.
And when you pick your 'face person' and 'requisitioning supplies people' try to choose people who will blend in, get along with locals and not get shot or assaulted for existing in a public place.
...yeah, sometimes you'll need to take the path of least risk, which is still too dangerous for me to be happy about.
Re: Thoughts
Date: 2021-05-01 02:49 am (UTC)My family on one side is Virgina/West Virginia/coal country born and bred; where people moved in and rarely ever leave. If you've ever watched the tv show Justified they do a decent job displaying that area; my mother thought it was fairly accurate.
Re: Thoughts
Date: 2021-05-01 02:58 am (UTC)https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/visualizations/2018/comm/acs-5yr-poverty-rate-all-counties.jpg
Re: Thoughts
Date: 2021-05-01 03:15 am (UTC)The northern part of Western Virginia (not West Virginia) isn't a bad place for many people to look although it's been growing like crazy with people moving out of D.C. and the suburbs there. Lot of small towns and small farm areas. Pennsylvania also has those small farm areas especially if you can find something nearby to the Amish and Mennonites.
A big thing to check out is the zoning laws and building permits where you're looking to move. When my family first moved to a rural Illinois county my father was shocked that the only thing inspected in construction was plumbing. Not electrical.
Finding an area zoned for livestock makes having chickens, goats, bees, etc. much easier to maintain without as much hassle. You can trade the eggs, meat, wool, honey and milk to others for supplies and items you can't produce on your own. Having these things established before everything goes bottoms up means you've worked out the bugs while you can get outside support.
Re: Thoughts
Date: 2021-05-01 03:28 am (UTC)Re: Thoughts
Date: 2021-05-01 03:30 am (UTC)And if a crowdsource investment came up, that might be more affordable.
Re: Thoughts
Date: 2021-05-01 03:39 am (UTC)(You adopt a foundling, vouch for one of your best friends, try to offer advice to an ancestral enemy, let a family with small kids shelter during a disaster, shoot as a warning not an execution, look at someone and see their personhood...) And all of these are from actual movies I've seen.
I think there are some lists of stories from real life too. How many people are saved by passerby, or firemen, or tow truck drivers, or teachers, or their friends' parents, or the kid who asked for two lunches to feed a friend...?
Heck, they only started teaching CPR to us civvies after paramedics kept noticing folks trying CPR they'd learned from tv.
And while I don't know if you've saved anyone's life (though I think it is a strong possiblity) I've learned a bunch from reading your works, and been able to pass along useful resources and information to other people. So you're a hero and role model too.
Re: Thoughts
Date: 2021-05-01 03:45 am (UTC)And I did lurk about a bit before decloaking enough to leave comments - I'm usually fairly leery of internet commenting.
I think this is one of the four nicest [comment-filled] places I've found on the internet so far.
Re: Thoughts
Date: 2021-05-01 03:55 am (UTC)https://www.ic.org/
https://www.ic.org/householding-communal-living-on-a-small-scale/
Re: Thoughts
Date: 2021-05-01 04:04 am (UTC)Want to spot prisons? Use the racial dotmap and just look for tight clusters of black people in the middle of nowhere.
Re: Thoughts
Date: 2021-05-01 04:05 am (UTC)Lately, stuff is a mess for what I freely admit are Very Stupid Reasons; likely some mix of incompatibility and poor communication.
Re: Thoughts
Date: 2021-05-01 04:10 am (UTC)