Housing and Economics

[ysabetwordsmith]

This article sets up a pretty simple equation:

Low housing availability 
High housing demand
Static or falling wages
-----------------------------
Reduced economic growth

In other words, if people can't afford to live near work, and can't afford to drive there, the work won't get done.  People are moving to other places where it is cheaper to live and/or there are better jobs.

I have personally seen this tank an outlet mall near us.  Years ago, it was built in a town that didn't have enough workers to staff that many shops.  For minimum wage, it is not cost-effective for anyone to drive in from anywhere else.  They used to have all kinds of things -- a bookstore, a music store, a toy store, kitchen stores, etc.  Now it's pretty much down to clothing stores and Harry & David's.  That's very sad.  But it was also predictable from the moment they announced plans to build an outlet mall where they did.

I find it frustrating that I, with my bad grasp of math, fairly often do a better job of spotted economic realities than people whose job this is supposed to be.

Comments

[(Anonymous)]

You see reality, not just your preferred reality, so you get a better success rate than most of the rest of us. And you don't give up on talking about it when people disagree with you.

Thoughts

[ysabetwordsmith]

>> You see reality, not just your preferred reality, so you get a better success rate than most of the rest of us. <<

Sooth. Most people have reality tunnel vision. I have a reality tunnel matrix that puts Mammoth Cave to shame. It does help.

>> And you don't give up on talking about it when people disagree with you.<<

That's me, purveyor of inconvenient truths! People have spent my whole life trying to shut me up. It hasn't worked out well for them.

[flamingsword]

Yes, but you are a holistic thinker. You see a lot of the lateral-thinking factors that go into decision making, and economics is *all about* decision making.

Thank you!

[ysabetwordsmith]

That makes sense. Apparently generalists routinely outperform specialists in predictions. We see more of the complicating factors from other fields.