Category 6 Isn't Enough

[ysabetwordsmith]

I have said for some time that the current hurricane scale, which has 5 categories, is insufficient and needs a Category 6. Looking at the actual numbers on the scale and in recorded storms, this turns out to be insufficient also. It doesn't need one more category, it needs TWO.


The current categories average a range of about 20, some lower, some higher. Positing a scale that uses categories of similar size would yield something like:

Category 1 = 74-95 mph (range of 22)
Category 2 = 96-110 mph (range of 15)
Category 3 = 111-129 mph (range of 19)
Category 4 = 130-156 mph (range of 27)
Category 5 = 157+ mph [new 157-176] (standard range of 20)
Category 6 = 177-196 mph
Category 7 = 197-216 mph

At that, the revised scale would just barely cover Hurricane Patricia's ominous 215 mph peak sustained wind speed. O_O That means we should be ready to activate Category 8 (217-236 mph) in the foreseeable future.

Now, the government doesn't want to panic people, or get blamed for the fact that climate change is making hurricanes a lot more violent than they used to be and also now clustering. But wouldn't it be useful to know that the official "Category 5" now contains a wider range (58) than Categories 3 and 4 combined (46)? (Some people may argue that we only need three action-based categories: Ignore It, Batten the Hatches, and Run For Your Lives.) Happily, the forecasts customarily include the actual wind speed, so you can simply adjust the scale on your own.

Of course, wind speed isn't the only thing that makes a hurricane dangerous. As mentioned, clustering means they are now more likely to come in twos or threes. Even a sideswipe by a later storm after the first storm has cracked open a city will be more devastating. Global warming seems to increase the storms that show rapid intensification, which can turn a minor storm into a major one with little warning. Rising sea levels boost storm surges. Warmer air also means that hurricanes can dump more rain. Storm surge and rainfall make even the lower categories more destructive.

Don't expect the politicians and the people they direct to give reliable interpretations. Be glad that pretty accurate weather information is available for you to analyze yourself. Here's a list of weather apps and weather websites with varying degrees of detail. For the hardcore weather nerds, you can also get raw data. Explore the parts of a text Hurricane Forecast/Advisory.

Comments

[siberian_skys]

Thank you so much. I'm in Florida, so this is perfect. I've been thinking about my home state, which is probably not a great idea. I hadn't realized that our friendly neighborhood fault line has woken up. I grew-up in Indiana and I've been in 3 or 4 earthquakes. Nothing big, but enough to feel. I know it's way over due for a big earthquake. It can't be 1good when you consider that fault line turned around the Mississippi River and rang church bells in Boston in the 1800s. I don't remember the exact year. I just remember watching a documentary once. I'm bookmarking this. Thanks again.

[(Anonymous)]

You're welcome.

Another thought: I have heard that the panhandle part of FL is more stable than the peninsula part; I actually know people who chose (when moving to FL) to go to the northernmost parts where all the hurricane evacuees go. (I have suggested they not buy any more property...)

If a cross-country move is not currently feaseable, a northward move might be a slight improvement?

I don't know the specifics of your situation: resources, limitations, other long-term goals etc, so you have to decide for you, but I thought I'd mention it.

Well ...

[ysabetwordsmith]

Almost all of Florida is high risk, except the westernmost tip of the panhandle is moderate risk. Much of the east coast of Florida and beyond it has the highest risk. Parts of Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi have moderate risk, and north of that, none.

Re: Well ...

[(Anonymous)]

The further north-and-inland the safer you are. Hopefully even a bit more distance will dull a storm/flood a bit.

Re: Well ...

[ysabetwordsmith]

That is true. The southern end of Florida is basically a big sponge. Partway up, the center gets more solid, although that won't keep it above water forever. It is better for the time being.

[siberian_skys]

I live in the north central part where evacuees go. Good news is that I'm too far away from storm surge, but can still get high winds, flooding and tornadoes. Fortunately, I'm not currently in a flood plane. The last big hurricane took out a lot of power. We had power at the house, thankfully, but the stop and go lights were out for days and we were on a generator at work. Most of the houses around where I worked had no power for two weeks. I felt guilty for having power at home.

[(Anonymous)]

If it happens again, and you are so inclined, you could offer to let folks charge phones and medical devices.

Or let people you know well enough heat soup in your kitchen...

Well, assuming your neighbors aren't jerks, anyway.

[siberian_skys]

I worked an hour from where I lived, so unfortunately that wouldn't have helped in that case, but if it had happened with the neighbors we would have. We know the neighbors on each side and some down the street and around the corner. My co-workers who worked closer to work could at least take advantage of the plugs at work. It was awful at work. So many people without power. The energy company in that town should have been ashamed of itself. They have a reputation for being a joke. That's the other thing I want to try to look in before I move--where the power comes from.

Yes ...

[ysabetwordsmith]

Also look for options that you can install yourself: solar panels, a generator, geothermal heat, a windmill, etc. Some places have perk programs for these. The more independent you can be, the better.

https://www.energy.gov/eere/femp/renewable-energy-maps-and-tools

https://www.eia.gov/state/maps.php

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/renewable-sources/incentives.php

https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/services/incentives-and-financing-energy-efficient-homes

Re: Yes ...

[(Anonymous)]

There are solar battery chargers too. And flashlights/headlamps if planning for power outages.

I've made a necklace out of a pocket flashlight - good for wandering around at night w/o turning out the lights. Just be careful - it doesn't always show what's right by your feet.

Re: Yes ...

[(Anonymous)]

Oh, and I've heard it suggested that an electric car could be used as a big battery in a pinch.

Re: Yes ...

[ysabetwordsmith]

A multifunction hand-cranked tool is a good investment. You can get features like radio, flashlight, USB charger, etc.

https://www.skilledsurvival.com/hand-crank-radio/

Re: Yes ...

[siberian_skys]

Living off the grid as much as possible would be nice. I draw the line at plumbing, though. Hopefully one of these years I can I change to an electric car. I've been thinking I should have put off the trade-ins until this year. I've been wanting to see the new VW bus. I have a felling that''s going to be out of my price range. It's probably more car than I need anyway.

Re: Yes ...

[(Anonymous)]

The 2024 looks pricey, by my standards.

I've heard something about a conversion kit for older models, but if you're going to be driving an antique you'd better be friendly with the local mechanic (or be one yourself!)

Also be sure to factor in parts/repairs - some older or imported cars might use less-standard parts that are hard to source.

Re: Yes ...

[ysabetwordsmith]

If a new one costs too much, look for used ones several years old whose owners are trading them in for the newest model.

O_O

[ysabetwordsmith]

>> Thank you so much. I'm in Florida, so this is perfect. I've been thinking about my home state, which is probably not a great idea. <<

Run awaaaayyy!!!!

Florida will be submerging. The more water melts, the more will go under, but people will be driven out long before it all sinks. Sunny day floods drive out businesses and ruin homes.

https://news.wjct.org/post/rising-seas-may-mean-tampa-bay-floods-even-during-sunny-days

https://westontitle.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Roy-Oppenheim-Global-Warming.jpg

Furthermore, the tipping point is getting close, because ordinary people are starting to notice these things. The value of coastal housing is currently high, but when it crashes it will probably go very fast. Then people in places like Florida won't be able to sell out to idiots, and will probably just have to flee with what they can carry.

>>I hadn't realized that our friendly neighborhood fault line has woken up. I grew-up in Indiana and I've been in 3 or 4 earthquakes. Nothing big, but enough to feel. I know it's way over due for a big earthquake. It can't be 1good when you consider that fault line turned around the Mississippi River and rang church bells in Boston in the 1800s. I don't remember the exact year. I just remember watching a documentary once. <<

Another friend pointed out that, as icecaps melt, that causes the crust to spring up under where they were. That spring causes other adjustments elsewhere in the crust. Adjustments = earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. 0_o

>>I'm bookmarking this. Thanks again.<<

*bow, flourish* Happy to be of service.

Re: O_O

[siberian_skys]

I've been contemplating fleeing if I can figure out how to do that. I've been looking online for house, condo and apartment prices. Housing prices are alarming, not that I'm all that surprised.

Re: O_O

[(Anonymous)]

Some jobs offer relocation assistance, if you've got the right skillset.

Might be a long shot, but...

Re: O_O

[siberian_skys]

Unfortunately, that's not my situation. I never thought I'd be starting over in my 50s, but considering the pandemic I know I'm not alone. I don't remember the number that I saw the other day, but a huge number of women had to give up their jobs during this crazy time.

Re: O_O

[(Anonymous)]

They are saying women's rights have been set back by what a decade? Two?

I'm a younger person, and all if this makes me even less enthused about a career in the traditional sense - "Come work for me and I'll pay you terribly while restricting your free time, and dont you dare complain, you should be grateful to be working at all!" Ugh.

And 'give up'? That sounds kind of like a choice...maybe we should say 'forced out' instead.

Re: O_O

[ysabetwordsmith]

The government simply declared that work was a privilege that could be revoked from above at any time. Nobody has a right to work. So that's evil, and obviously unsustainable, but people agreed to it so now they are stuck with it. This is among the more blatantly unconstitutional abuses (violating "the right of the people peaceably to assemble") but nobody cared. Good luck getting rights back without a civil war.

Re: O_O

[siberian_skys]

I think forced out is the better term.

I've been thinking about what to do that isn't traditional. Since I'm starting over, then I should do something I love and not just put up with.

Re: O_O

[ysabetwordsmith]

On that note, check high-need industries. These often have relocation or even retraining programs, and some have signing bonuses. Look both in your current area and in areas where you wish to move.

https://www.udacity.com/blog/2021/02/hiring-trends-for-2021-which-jobs-are-in-demand.html

https://www.kens5.com/article/life/looking-for-a-job-here-are-the-top-10-careers-with-a-worker-shortage/273-6104aa07-11e6-49b7-8f2f-407deb8715c8

A few towns have move-in bonuses -- sometimes as large as a free house! -- in areas that are depopulating. These are ideal for anyone with a portable career: writers, artists, homesteaders, app programmers, etc. It would be advisable to develop some sort of portable career.

https://www.slice.ca/20-surprising-jobs-you-can-do-from-anywhere-2/

https://www.flexjobs.com/blog/post/top-companies-work-from-anywhere-remote-jobs/

https://evergreendimes.com/work-from-home-jobs-for-military-spouses/

https://www.travelinglifestyle.net/digital-nomad-jobs/

Re: O_O

[ysabetwordsmith]

Affordable housing maps:

http://googlemapsmania.blogspot.com/2021/02/the-affordable-housing-map.html

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-cost-rent-140-north-american-cities/


Cheapest places to live:

https://realestate.usnews.com/places/rankings/cheapest-places-to-live

https://www.kiplinger.com/real-estate/places-to-live/601488/25-cheapest-us-cities-to-live-in

https://www.businessinsider.com/the-most-affordable-small-town-in-every-state-2019-5

https://rurallivingtoday.com/rural-living/living-in-the-country-best-rural-places-to-live/


Anywhere people are leaving should offer better housing prices than places people are piling into.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/u-s-population-change-by-county-2010-2018/

Re: O_O

[siberian_skys]

Thank you. These should give me a lot of starting points.