ysabetwordsmith (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
ysabetwordsmith) wrote2025-04-14 11:23 pm
ysabetwordsmith) wrote2025-04-14 11:23 pm
Entry tags:
Panama Canal
The Panama Canal has long been a vital shipping route. Right now, it's running dry because of climate change.
At the same time, Panama's islands are going under as the sea level rises.
It occurred to me that North and South America spent a lot of time separated before that tiny land bridge formed. But how high is it above the water, really? Not all that high. At the Panama Canal, for instance, the maximum height above sea level is only about 85 feet (26 meters) -- and a substantial portion of that land is actually underwater already, part of a large system of lakes.
If there are very deep cuts in emissions, sea level rise would slow between 2050 and 2100. It could then reach by 2100 between 30 cm (1 ft) and 1.0 m (3+1⁄3 ft) from now and approximately 60 cm (2 ft) to 130 cm (4+1⁄2 ft) from the 19th century. With high emissions it would instead accelerate further, and could rise by 50cm (1.6 ft) or even by 1.9 m (6.2 ft) by 2100.[8][5][3]: 1302 In the long run, sea level rise would amount to 2–3 m (7–10 ft) over the next 2000 years if warming stays to its current 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) over the pre-industrial past. It would be 19–22 metres (62–72 ft) if warming peaks at 5 °C (9.0 °F).
How much polar ice melts will depend on emission rates. We're well past the optimistic ones. Current rates would lead to losing most or even all of the ice -- and rates are still rising.
Now think about how often scientists drastically underestimate how bad things will get, how fast. I usually double or triple numbers to get a more realistic estimate. That paints a really bad picture for any low-lying land.
That's not all, though. We're also looking at a drastic increase in hurricanes. The bigger and stronger they are, the more ability they have to strip away land, sometimes with shocking speed. Climate change is rapidly making hurricanes worse.
A hypercane is a hypothetical class of extreme tropical cyclone that could form if sea surface temperatures reached approximately 50 °C (122 °F), which is 12 °C (22 °F) warmer than the warmest ocean temperature ever recorded.
[---8<---]
In order to form a hypercane, according to Emanuel's hypothetical model, the ocean temperature would have to be at least 49 °C (120 °F). A critical difference between a hypercane and present-day hurricanes is that a hypercane would extend into the upper stratosphere, whereas present-day hurricanes extend into only the lower stratosphere.
Hypercanes would have wind speeds of over 800 kilometres per hour (500 mph), potentially gusting to 970 km/h (600 mph),[7] and would also have a central pressure of less than 700 hectopascals (20.67 inHg), giving them an enormous lifespan of at least several weeks.[5] The pressure drop, compared to mean sea level pressure, would be the equivalent of being at almost 3,000 metres (9,800 ft) in elevation,[8] a level sufficient to cause altitude sickness.[9] This extreme low pressure could also support massive storm systems roughly the size of North America.
As hurricanes get worse, people are starting to talk about hypercanes and climate change. We're getting perilously close to the threshold -- with no sign of slowing down. Remember that it's not the average or typical temperature that makes the trigger. A brief spike could be enough to set off a hypercane. Even an ordinary hurricane causes great erosion, and when they ramp up, they can peel land off bedrock.
So the Panama Canal may be running dry for now, but rising water and wind could eventually slice through that land bridge.
I don't think anyone else is quite putting these pieces together yet, but someone should probably think about how to handle it before it does happen.
At the same time, Panama's islands are going under as the sea level rises.
It occurred to me that North and South America spent a lot of time separated before that tiny land bridge formed. But how high is it above the water, really? Not all that high. At the Panama Canal, for instance, the maximum height above sea level is only about 85 feet (26 meters) -- and a substantial portion of that land is actually underwater already, part of a large system of lakes.
If there are very deep cuts in emissions, sea level rise would slow between 2050 and 2100. It could then reach by 2100 between 30 cm (1 ft) and 1.0 m (3+1⁄3 ft) from now and approximately 60 cm (2 ft) to 130 cm (4+1⁄2 ft) from the 19th century. With high emissions it would instead accelerate further, and could rise by 50cm (1.6 ft) or even by 1.9 m (6.2 ft) by 2100.[8][5][3]: 1302 In the long run, sea level rise would amount to 2–3 m (7–10 ft) over the next 2000 years if warming stays to its current 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) over the pre-industrial past. It would be 19–22 metres (62–72 ft) if warming peaks at 5 °C (9.0 °F).
How much polar ice melts will depend on emission rates. We're well past the optimistic ones. Current rates would lead to losing most or even all of the ice -- and rates are still rising.
Now think about how often scientists drastically underestimate how bad things will get, how fast. I usually double or triple numbers to get a more realistic estimate. That paints a really bad picture for any low-lying land.
That's not all, though. We're also looking at a drastic increase in hurricanes. The bigger and stronger they are, the more ability they have to strip away land, sometimes with shocking speed. Climate change is rapidly making hurricanes worse.
A hypercane is a hypothetical class of extreme tropical cyclone that could form if sea surface temperatures reached approximately 50 °C (122 °F), which is 12 °C (22 °F) warmer than the warmest ocean temperature ever recorded.
[---8<---]
In order to form a hypercane, according to Emanuel's hypothetical model, the ocean temperature would have to be at least 49 °C (120 °F). A critical difference between a hypercane and present-day hurricanes is that a hypercane would extend into the upper stratosphere, whereas present-day hurricanes extend into only the lower stratosphere.
Hypercanes would have wind speeds of over 800 kilometres per hour (500 mph), potentially gusting to 970 km/h (600 mph),[7] and would also have a central pressure of less than 700 hectopascals (20.67 inHg), giving them an enormous lifespan of at least several weeks.[5] The pressure drop, compared to mean sea level pressure, would be the equivalent of being at almost 3,000 metres (9,800 ft) in elevation,[8] a level sufficient to cause altitude sickness.[9] This extreme low pressure could also support massive storm systems roughly the size of North America.
As hurricanes get worse, people are starting to talk about hypercanes and climate change. We're getting perilously close to the threshold -- with no sign of slowing down. Remember that it's not the average or typical temperature that makes the trigger. A brief spike could be enough to set off a hypercane. Even an ordinary hurricane causes great erosion, and when they ramp up, they can peel land off bedrock.
So the Panama Canal may be running dry for now, but rising water and wind could eventually slice through that land bridge.
I don't think anyone else is quite putting these pieces together yet, but someone should probably think about how to handle it before it does happen.