ysabetwordsmith (
ysabetwordsmith) wrote2021-04-29 09:53 pm
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Category 6 Isn't Enough
I have said for some time that the current hurricane scale, which has 5 categories, is insufficient and needs a Category 6. Looking at the actual numbers on the scale and in recorded storms, this turns out to be insufficient also. It doesn't need one more category, it needs TWO.
The current categories average a range of about 20, some lower, some higher. Positing a scale that uses categories of similar size would yield something like:
Category 1 = 74-95 mph (range of 22)
Category 2 = 96-110 mph (range of 15)
Category 3 = 111-129 mph (range of 19)
Category 4 = 130-156 mph (range of 27)
Category 5 = 157+ mph [new 157-176] (standard range of 20)
Category 6 = 177-196 mph
Category 7 = 197-216 mph
At that, the revised scale would just barely cover Hurricane Patricia's ominous 215 mph peak sustained wind speed. O_O That means we should be ready to activate Category 8 (217-236 mph) in the foreseeable future.
Now, the government doesn't want to panic people, or get blamed for the fact that climate change is making hurricanes a lot more violent than they used to be and also now clustering. But wouldn't it be useful to know that the official "Category 5" now contains a wider range (58) than Categories 3 and 4 combined (46)? (Some people may argue that we only need three action-based categories: Ignore It, Batten the Hatches, and Run For Your Lives.) Happily, the forecasts customarily include the actual wind speed, so you can simply adjust the scale on your own.
Of course, wind speed isn't the only thing that makes a hurricane dangerous. As mentioned, clustering means they are now more likely to come in twos or threes. Even a sideswipe by a later storm after the first storm has cracked open a city will be more devastating. Global warming seems to increase the storms that show rapid intensification, which can turn a minor storm into a major one with little warning. Rising sea levels boost storm surges. Warmer air also means that hurricanes can dump more rain. Storm surge and rainfall make even the lower categories more destructive.
Don't expect the politicians and the people they direct to give reliable interpretations. Be glad that pretty accurate weather information is available for you to analyze yourself. Here's a list of weather apps and weather websites with varying degrees of detail. For the hardcore weather nerds, you can also get raw data. Explore the parts of a text Hurricane Forecast/Advisory.
The current categories average a range of about 20, some lower, some higher. Positing a scale that uses categories of similar size would yield something like:
Category 1 = 74-95 mph (range of 22)
Category 2 = 96-110 mph (range of 15)
Category 3 = 111-129 mph (range of 19)
Category 4 = 130-156 mph (range of 27)
Category 5 = 157+ mph [new 157-176] (standard range of 20)
Category 6 = 177-196 mph
Category 7 = 197-216 mph
At that, the revised scale would just barely cover Hurricane Patricia's ominous 215 mph peak sustained wind speed. O_O That means we should be ready to activate Category 8 (217-236 mph) in the foreseeable future.
Now, the government doesn't want to panic people, or get blamed for the fact that climate change is making hurricanes a lot more violent than they used to be and also now clustering. But wouldn't it be useful to know that the official "Category 5" now contains a wider range (58) than Categories 3 and 4 combined (46)? (Some people may argue that we only need three action-based categories: Ignore It, Batten the Hatches, and Run For Your Lives.) Happily, the forecasts customarily include the actual wind speed, so you can simply adjust the scale on your own.
Of course, wind speed isn't the only thing that makes a hurricane dangerous. As mentioned, clustering means they are now more likely to come in twos or threes. Even a sideswipe by a later storm after the first storm has cracked open a city will be more devastating. Global warming seems to increase the storms that show rapid intensification, which can turn a minor storm into a major one with little warning. Rising sea levels boost storm surges. Warmer air also means that hurricanes can dump more rain. Storm surge and rainfall make even the lower categories more destructive.
Don't expect the politicians and the people they direct to give reliable interpretations. Be glad that pretty accurate weather information is available for you to analyze yourself. Here's a list of weather apps and weather websites with varying degrees of detail. For the hardcore weather nerds, you can also get raw data. Explore the parts of a text Hurricane Forecast/Advisory.
O_O
Run awaaaayyy!!!!
Florida will be submerging. The more water melts, the more will go under, but people will be driven out long before it all sinks. Sunny day floods drive out businesses and ruin homes.
https://news.wjct.org/post/rising-seas-may-mean-tampa-bay-floods-even-during-sunny-days
https://westontitle.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Roy-Oppenheim-Global-Warming.jpg
Furthermore, the tipping point is getting close, because ordinary people are starting to notice these things. The value of coastal housing is currently high, but when it crashes it will probably go very fast. Then people in places like Florida won't be able to sell out to idiots, and will probably just have to flee with what they can carry.
>>I hadn't realized that our friendly neighborhood fault line has woken up. I grew-up in Indiana and I've been in 3 or 4 earthquakes. Nothing big, but enough to feel. I know it's way over due for a big earthquake. It can't be 1good when you consider that fault line turned around the Mississippi River and rang church bells in Boston in the 1800s. I don't remember the exact year. I just remember watching a documentary once. <<
Another friend pointed out that, as icecaps melt, that causes the crust to spring up under where they were. That spring causes other adjustments elsewhere in the crust. Adjustments = earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. 0_o
>>I'm bookmarking this. Thanks again.<<
*bow, flourish* Happy to be of service.
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(Anonymous) 2021-05-02 09:50 pm (UTC)(link)Might be a long shot, but...
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(Anonymous) 2021-05-03 02:30 am (UTC)(link)I'm a younger person, and all if this makes me even less enthused about a career in the traditional sense - "Come work for me and I'll pay you terribly while restricting your free time, and dont you dare complain, you should be grateful to be working at all!" Ugh.
And 'give up'? That sounds kind of like a choice...maybe we should say 'forced out' instead.
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(Anonymous) 2021-05-03 04:18 am (UTC)(link)Granted, some of the industries that closed were likely predominantly women, and women are more likely to be badly affected by economic hits due to wage disparities the whole glass ceiling/glass elevator thing.
As for the work in general...Godzilla Threshold? Personally, I'm mostly annoyed with:
a) 'poverty is due to laziness, and lazy people deserve to suffer' ... when crossed with the current economic / public health situation where people can't find work or can't find work that wont kill them/their relatives
b) medical advice and economic necessity at odds (this is not a new issue)
c) insisting that essential workers are greedy for wanting pay raises (which was actually discussed in 1351 after the Black Death killed off a chunk of the English serfs)
d) and while we're at it, I wish people would stop screaming at each other - we're all scared, we're all having a hard time, but even if we disagree, we're all mostly trying to do the right thing as best as we can. [Comment directed at the world in general, not anyone specific...]
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I've been thinking about what to do that isn't traditional. Since I'm starting over, then I should do something I love and not just put up with.
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(Anonymous) 2021-05-03 04:42 pm (UTC)(link)I've been toying with writing or art, but havent mustered up the motivation to start anything. (I had a relative who fed his family by making & selling his art through the Great Depression, so it is possible to make a living that way...if somewhat difficult.)
I've also got a crazy idea for a sewing pattern I could try to develop...
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The sewing pattern idea is cool. I know people sell those on Etsy, so not so crazy.
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(Anonymous) 2021-05-04 12:25 am (UTC)(link)Re: O_O
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https://www.mantelligence.com/hobbies-that-make-money/
https://www.gobankingrates.com/money/jobs/odd-jobs-that-pay-well/
https://www.moneycrashers.com/jobs-require-no-experience/
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https://www.udacity.com/blog/2021/02/hiring-trends-for-2021-which-jobs-are-in-demand.html
https://www.kens5.com/article/life/looking-for-a-job-here-are-the-top-10-careers-with-a-worker-shortage/273-6104aa07-11e6-49b7-8f2f-407deb8715c8
A few towns have move-in bonuses -- sometimes as large as a free house! -- in areas that are depopulating. These are ideal for anyone with a portable career: writers, artists, homesteaders, app programmers, etc. It would be advisable to develop some sort of portable career.
https://www.slice.ca/20-surprising-jobs-you-can-do-from-anywhere-2/
https://www.flexjobs.com/blog/post/top-companies-work-from-anywhere-remote-jobs/
https://evergreendimes.com/work-from-home-jobs-for-military-spouses/
https://www.travelinglifestyle.net/digital-nomad-jobs/
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http://googlemapsmania.blogspot.com/2021/02/the-affordable-housing-map.html
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-cost-rent-140-north-american-cities/
Cheapest places to live:
https://realestate.usnews.com/places/rankings/cheapest-places-to-live
https://www.kiplinger.com/real-estate/places-to-live/601488/25-cheapest-us-cities-to-live-in
https://www.businessinsider.com/the-most-affordable-small-town-in-every-state-2019-5
https://rurallivingtoday.com/rural-living/living-in-the-country-best-rural-places-to-live/
Anywhere people are leaving should offer better housing prices than places people are piling into.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/u-s-population-change-by-county-2010-2018/
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